COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower in range trading Friday. Speculators were the best sellers as worries about the European debt crisis resurfaced and as traders worried about a contraction in the Chinese economy. The weekly export sales report released Thursday was positive for Cotton as new sales were announced. Old crop Cotton has seen a lot of export sales cancellations in the past couple of months, and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will not be that strong, either. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft with a lot of export competition around. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road. However, Chinese demand could start to increase soon and some of that demand would come to the US.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to near to above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 95.64 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.031 million bales, from 0.031 million yesterday. ICE said that 3 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 200 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 103.00, 105.00, and 107.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 253,102
: Positions
: 56,428 108,881 44,096 19,831 20,377 31,304 10,335 19,764 10,362 2,866 58,539
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 6,909 -9,126 -587 103 818 -4,931 5,083 224 -328 281 -1,201
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 22.3 43.0 17.4 7.8 8.1 12.4 4.1 7.8 4.1 1.1 23.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 247
: 39 45 19 16 23 57 25 33 41 36 52
————————————————————————————————————–
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday in response to negative Chinese and European economic ideas. Fears tht both economies are contracting created selling in most commodities futures markets. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. Prices appear to be in a range. Florida has seen scattered showers and storms and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Mostly dry weather is expected this week. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Rain should develop this week in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 147.50 November. Support is at 149.00, 145.00, and 143.00 November, with resistance at 155.00, 160.00, and 164.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 32,847
: Positions
: 10,063 22,550 3,767 410 9 8,696 1,405 566 654 158 6,287
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,844 -2,306 -428 10 3 -1,315 968 210 -167 -26 399
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 30.6 68.7 11.5 1.2 0.0 26.5 4.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 19.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 84
: 22 21 9 . . 17 8 . 12 7 17
————————————————————————————————————–
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower again Friday on what appeared to be follow through fund selling tied mostly to ideas of weak world economic factors. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around. Some say Brazil could produce 60 million bags this year, but flowering has not started yet so it is hard to say exactly. Some rains are forecast for this week. Producers there remain concerned as it is still dry in Coffee areas. Rain is needed for flowering there. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop, although some end of the season old crop lots are showing up now. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. There was some talk of increased Vietnamese offers in London, but so far this has not been seen in the pits there. Chart trends are mixed to down for the short term in all markets, and prices act as if they could work lower.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.430 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 190.95 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers through this week. Temperatures will average near normal. The Brazilian government said it would stop collecting a tax on Coffee that was designed to support social programs but was said to unfairly hurt exporters at the expense of roasters. Vietnam exported 950,000 bags of Coffee in August, down 13% from last year. Yearr to date exports are now 16.0 million bags, from 13.4 million last year. Ibndonesia Sumatra exports were 10,435 tons in September, from 35,527 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 218.00 and 203.00 December. Support is at 227.00, 225.00, and 221.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 237.00, and 240.50 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1945, 1930, and 1860 November, and resistance is at 2020, 2030, and 2050 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00, 323.00, and 330.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 189,170
: Positions
: 54,518 78,381 30,258 10,598 8,483 20,751 12,723 18,380 984 4,645 50,371
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 8,348 -4,010 -669 -1,034 1,003 -8,040 3,211 5,349 168 -89 6,380
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.8 41.4 16.0 5.6 4.5 11.0 6.7 9.7 0.5 2.5 26.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 332
: 89 96 23 11 19 61 39 54 34 46 69
————————————————————————————————————–
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday on what appeared to be fund selling tied to ideas of weakness in world economies. Reports of demand from African and Asian countries supported futures, but the commercial buying was overwhelmed by the fund selling. Some chart analysts think that moves lower will be coming soon and this will only be a corrective rally at the end. They were able to see futures fail at resistance areas on Friday. There are some reasons to think Sugar can hold in this area for at least the short term. India could produce less than expectations and that the export program will not be strong. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Chart trends are up after the strong moves last week.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil through this week. Temperatures should be near normal. ICE said that 397 contracts were delivered against October Sugar 11 futures today.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 March. Support is at 2480, 2400, and 2350 March, and resistance is at 2540, 2640, and 2720 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 681.00 December. Support is at 639.00, 625.00, and 620.00 December, and resistance is at 675.00, 677.00, and 685.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 658,083
: Positions
: 116,554 278,285 136,330 84,000 50,507 109,644 19,221 39,812 22,453 6,073 115,514
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 828 -35,570 -3,934 -4,378 371 -15,230 12,709 -2,339 -2,854 568 6,898
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.7 42.3 20.7 12.8 7.7 16.7 2.9 6.0 3.4 0.9 17.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 215
: 53 60 20 11 24 43 12 24 29 34 55
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London Friday on weakness seen in almost all commodities markets due to weakness in world economies. Talk of over supply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around. Trends are down on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month.
However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.928 million bags. Indonesia Sulawesi Cocoa exports were 7,388 tons in September, from 18,849 tons last year. Ivory Coast export declarations are now 1.390 million tons, up 30% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2500 and 2380 December. Support is at 2590, 2560, and 2530 December, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2790 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 and 1480 December. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 216,648
: Positions
: 103,247 98,000 19,053 10,704 5,328 27,854 40,322 25,676 2,679 3,069 23,544
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,705 -3,994 -856 72 42 -808 3,901 -129 -19 47 20
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 47.7 45.2 8.8 4.9 2.5 12.9 18.6 11.9 1.2 1.4 10.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 201
: 41 42 16 8 12 33 55 24 21 17 19
————————————————————————————————————–
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
Free-Subscribe to receive Daily Newsletters via Email
