COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher Friday on mixed speculative buying tied to strong weekly export sales and the start of the resolution of the Greek crisis. Some were liquidating long positions but others looked at chart clues and began to add to longs or start new longs. It was another positive day that suggested that a low might be in place, especially as many are uncertain about how the European deal will work. Traders also noted that Pakistan has cut production estimates in the last week to remove some competition in the export arena. The harvest is still moving forward in Texas and weather there remains dry. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but the market acts ready to work higher.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly near to above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 101.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.028 million bales, from 0.028 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 99.00, and 98.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 262,630
: Positions
: 62,195 100,167 40,846 19,395 22,287 32,067 14,195 25,686 9,776 5,814 57,491
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 3,174 -4,877 -1,152 1,050 626 58 2,447 3,707 -73 1,888 -1,218
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.7 38.1 15.6 7.4 8.5 12.2 5.4 9.8 3.7 2.2 21.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 261
: 37 47 19 15 24 62 29 37 52 30 58
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday as a hurricane faded south of the Yucatan. Speculators were the best sellers. The tropics are mostly quiet now, and the time of highest threat to Florida is passing. But, there is still potential for a storm to develop based on climatology. Florida weather remains a negative for prices for now. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see drier weather. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends are up on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Showers are seen this week for Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objections of 166.00 and 159.00 January. Support is at 170.00, 167.00, and 166.00 January, with resistance at 176.00, 179.00, and 184.00 January.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,870
: Positions
: 9,599 25,974 3,427 432 6 10,869 107 126 481 252 6,255
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -2,031 544 -190 10 -4 1,828 -386 -438 84 -39 -1,159
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.3 76.7 10.1 1.3 0.0 32.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.7 18.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 95
: 21 21 8 . . 34 . . 14 7 14
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and Sao Paulo, but lower in London as traders were reluctant to take many new positions before the weekend. News that the European situation was being addressed help bullish attitudes during the week, but there were too many questions about the next moves to create much market interest in coffee. Loss reports from Central America are coming in from the rains in the last weeks, but it is mostly dry there now. Some areas lost up to 25% of crops, according to reports, and total losses could be at least 1.0 million bags in Central America. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential, but trees are just starting to flower in Brazil and Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia has seen a lot of rain recently that could hurt cherries. Drier weather is forecast for Brazil this week, and dryness now would hurt flowering and cherry formation. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.267 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 194.93 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and near to below normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 228.00, and 225.00 December, and resistance is at 241.00, 243.00, and 252.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1840 January, and resistance is at 1910, 1950, and 1970 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 324.00, 318.00, and 313.00 December, and resistance is at 335.00, 340.00, and 342.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 188,901
: Positions
: 55,107 82,353 27,958 7,839 10,597 20,408 9,640 19,368 1,528 5,218 47,753
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -942 5,242 -536 358 559 1,946 -3,393 2,653 250 -537 -405
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.2 43.6 14.8 4.1 5.6 10.8 5.1 10.3 0.8 2.8 25.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 328
: 91 94 20 12 18 54 39 48 45 44 78
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday on doubts about the European crisis resolution and as the US Dollar moved higher. Speculators appeared to be the bestsellers, although some origin selling was possible as well as chart patterns are starting to look weak again. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Reports are that losses are minor and most of the problems will be due to delayed crushing and deliveries rather than to crop losses. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world as reasons to keep the selling pressure on. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon, and Europe is said to have very good crops this year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions or light showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2610, 2540, and 2490 March, and resistance is at 2770, 2790, and 2850 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 667.00, 662.00, and 649.00 March, and resistance is at 686.00, 693.00, and 707.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 705,725
: Positions
: 131,868 306,442 128,448 93,651 53,242 129,704 13,983 37,352 24,576 6,734 128,491
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 4,304 5,153 622 385 1,589 3,795 29 3,624 -319 1,376 -1,635
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 18.7 43.4 18.2 13.3 7.5 18.4 2.0 5.3 3.5 1.0 18.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 230
: 54 62 19 14 24 50 11 25 34 34 57
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London Friday on speculative selling before the weekend. Trends turned up with the price action last week, and Friday seemed to be mostly a consolidation day. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but seems to have run out as a market force as arrivals from farmers have been slow. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.701 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2890, 3370, and 3600 December. Support is at 2710, 2690, and 2670 December, with resistance at 2770, 2790, and 2850 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 244,690
: Positions
: 114,434 104,227 14,672 10,489 10,861 27,744 39,919 32,919 3,180 4,173 30,661
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 2,352 1,247 -1,835 213 2,820 2,018 1,082 829 -160 563 -1,979
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.8 42.6 6.0 4.3 4.4 11.3 16.3 13.5 1.3 1.7 12.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 200
: 39 39 17 8 13 31 56 28 20 19 20
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Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
