COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower after a choppy session. World economic problems seemed to be the main focus of trade. More talk of big rains in Pakistan created ideas that crops could be lost there. Chinese growing areas have possibly hurt by rains as well, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan. Chart trends still show a neutral bias, but the market appears ready to go higher. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible. Southeast coastal areas could get big rains and winds later in the week from Hurricane Irene Temperatures will average above to much above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 104.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday. China imported 157,066 tons of Cotton in July, down 7% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 1.48 million tons, down 13% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 246,085
: Positions
: 41,708 113,305 46,634 21,957 15,593 38,410 7,822 13,832 15,247 2,204 59,336
: Changes from: August 9, 2011
: -270 -378 -980 462 -429 82 -1,329 -1,010 -1,549 -277 852
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.9 46.0 19.0 8.9 6.3 15.6 3.2 5.6 6.2 0.9 24.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 254
: 32 45 19 16 22 68 21 31 60 21 53
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders were more concerned with world economics. A tropical system could hit the US later this week, with Florida likely to be the first port of entry. The system intensified overnight and is now Hurricane Irene. It will be watched for the exact track and strength, but could remain a weak hurricane by the time it hits southern parts of the state. It could bring some significant rains and winds to the state. Charts show that trends are mixed as traders look for news and a reason to buy or sell. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and mostly dry conditions for now.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. A tropical hurricane could hit the state later this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 159.00 September, with resistance at 177.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 36,985
: Positions
: 9,791 25,294 3,889 877 98 9,861 812 665 1,182 261 7,654
: Changes from: August 9, 2011
: 1,012 -3,476 -352 -75 -131 -4,495 258 231 167 -62 765
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.5 68.4 10.5 2.4 0.3 26.7 2.2 1.8 3.2 0.7 20.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 99
: 23 22 8 . . 25 7 4 15 13 19
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher Friday on follow through buying from the big day on Thursday. Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. However, industry is said to be covered for now. Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather. It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia. Warm temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil. A tropical system brought some big rains to southern Mexico and northern Central America over the weekend. Chart trends remain up in London and turned up last week in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.478 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 219.81 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather in the north and showers in the south. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December. Support is at 263.00, 257.00, and 252.00 December, and resistance is at 273.00, 277.00, and 281.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2560 November. Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2360, 2380, and 2420 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 350.00, 362.00, and 372.00 December. Support is at 338.00, 335.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 348.00, 349.00, and 356.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 154,795
: Positions
: 46,950 67,697 29,738 10,059 7,306 20,050 16,442 6,602 1,467 4,673 34,049
: Changes from: August 9, 2011
: -8,254 -1,829 555 -332 -2,309 1,859 -4,036 -1,878 -302 1,486 -11,546
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 30.3 43.7 19.2 6.5 4.7 13.0 10.6 4.3 0.9 3.0 22.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 318
: 82 91 21 12 20 58 40 40 38 42 63
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher in New York and in London Friday on fund buying. There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately, and fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago. That did not matter on Friday. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Chart trends turned up with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. China imported 256,474 tons of Sugar in July, down 16% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 776,945 tons, up 9% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3310 October. Support is at 3090, 2950, and 2930 October, and resistance is at 3130, 3170, and 3200 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October. Support is at 775.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 797.00, 801.00, and 805.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 813,714
: Positions
: 139,127 383,129 142,482 79,789 64,410 144,497 18,000 51,706 31,639 5,200 148,899
: Changes from: August 9, 2011
: -1,625 -11,082 -1,904 1,457 173 -13,532 1,178 -1,858 3,284 401 -5,132
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.1 47.1 17.5 9.8 7.9 17.8 2.2 6.4 3.9 0.6 18.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 242
: 54 61 20 11 27 65 10 34 34 36 58
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and lower in London in consolidation trading on Friday. Cocoa may still have found a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are still down overall on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.009 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 2 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2900 September, with resistance at 3090, 3135, and 3145 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1855, 1840, and 1830 September, with resistance at 1920, 1935, and 1975 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 189,409
: Positions
: 88,970 96,366 19,118 10,496 3,372 30,622 31,081 16,247 2,521 2,297 19,999
: Changes from: August 9, 2011
: 2,092 -4,717 -1,922 -48 -1,136 -1,809 1,659 -4,814 623 290 -690
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 47.0 50.9 10.1 5.5 1.8 16.2 16.4 8.6 1.3 1.2 10.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 175
: 35 39 18 8 10 33 39 27 21 13 21
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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