COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed higher Friday on the price positive reaction to the speech by Ben Bernacke and as Irene approached the Southeast. The system hit North Carolina very hard with rains and wind and could have hurt Cotton grown in the state. Weather overall remains a supportive factor, as Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. Chart trends are turning down for the short term. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 101.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 100.00 and 95.00 October. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 249,335
: Positions
: 40,399 116,613 46,902 22,432 15,830 42,728 7,334 14,022 15,232 2,168 59,005
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -1,308 3,308 268 475 237 4,318 -488 190 -16 -37 -331
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.2 46.8 18.8 9.0 6.3 17.1 2.9 5.6 6.1 0.9 23.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 251
: 32 45 18 17 22 66 22 29 57 24 50
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher along with most other commodities markets on the price positive reaction to the speech by FED President Bernacke. Irene caused minimal damage to Oranges if any, and brought some welcome precipitation to many areas. Charts show that trends are down. There is not another tropical storm on tap for Florida after Irene moves by. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 162.00 September. Support is at 164.00, 159.00, and 157.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 174.00, and 177.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,365
: Positions
: 8,710 23,890 3,910 877 20 9,620 812 558 1,274 207 5,665
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -1,081 -1,404 21 0 -78 -241 0 -107 92 -54 -1,990
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.1 71.6 11.7 2.6 0.1 28.8 2.4 1.7 3.8 0.6 17.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96
: 22 19 8 . . 26 7 4 18 8 17
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on follow through speculative buying tied in part to ideas of short supplies and in part to the price positive reaction to the comments of Ben Bernacke. Speculators were the best players on both sides of the market, and there was little in the way of news to support the move. Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. However, industry is said to be covered for now. Weather in Brazil is good. It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends turned mixed for the short term in London, but remain generally up in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.470 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 123 contracts today and now total 131 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 224.81 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December. Support is at 277.00, 273.00, and 263.00 December, and resistance is at 261.00, 284.00, and 290.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2230 November, and resistance is at 2420, 2430, and 2440 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 372.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 358.00, 356.00, and 347.00 December, and resistance is at 365.00, 367.00, and 373.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 160,223
: Positions
: 43,131 71,417 30,602 11,187 6,659 23,409 12,164 8,776 925 4,869 39,148
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -3,819 3,720 864 1,129 -646 3,358 -4,279 2,174 -542 196 5,099
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.9 44.6 19.1 7.0 4.2 14.6 7.6 5.5 0.6 3.0 24.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 328
: 83 99 20 11 16 66 36 42 34 43 63
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and in London Friday on speculative buying tied to reports of new demand amid tight supplies and poor production in Brazil. There was also buying tied to the price positive reaction to the speech by Fed President Bernacke. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support. UNICA had cut it sugar production data again on Thursday. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. China sold all the Sugar at offer at its auction last week, and there is talk that the country will need to import more to keep prices under some form of control. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Chart trends turned down with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Iraq bought 160,000 tons of Sugar through a direct contract on Friday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2820 October. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2910 October, and resistance is at 3060, 3140, and 3170 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 742.00 and 703.00 October. Support is at 761.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 787.00, 797.00, and 801.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 847,592
: Positions
: 135,396 389,605 141,282 87,226 70,472 144,787 3,702 54,946 34,139 4,806 166,919
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -3,731 6,476 -1,200 7,437 6,062 290 -14,298 3,241 2,500 -394 18,020
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.0 46.0 16.7 10.3 8.3 17.1 0.4 6.5 4.0 0.6 19.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 237
: 55 64 19 12 27 60 8 35 36 33 59
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on what appeared to be some speculative buying tied to the price positive market reaction to the words of Ben Bernacke. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year..
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.933 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. The ICCO estimates world Cocoa production at a record 4.2 million tons for 2010-11, up 15.5% from the previous year. It estimates that surplus production will be about 325,000 tons, and ending stocks at 1.99 million tons. The grind should total 3.83 million tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3050, 3010, and 2950 December, with resistance at 3090, 3150, and 3180 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1855 December, with resistance at 1975, 1990, and 2005 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 187,394
: Positions
: 85,347 98,208 17,645 10,903 3,848 31,009 26,974 16,306 2,243 2,292 20,652
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -3,623 1,842 -1,473 407 476 387 -4,107 59 -278 -5 654
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 45.5 52.4 9.4 5.8 2.1 16.5 14.4 8.7 1.2 1.2 11.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 173
: 32 40 17 8 11 44 31 32 16 15 17
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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