COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again yesterday in light volume trading. Small funds and mills were said to be the best buyers. Weather overall remains a supportive factor, as Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 103.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.016 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 227,000 bales this year and 2,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were -2,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 October.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders get ready for September deliveries that start today. Traders are now more interested in the tropical system seen in the eastern Atlantic. The system appears likely to move close to the East Coast once again, although for now it does not appear likely to hit Florida. It might not even hit the US depending on how the weather patterns set up. It is possible that a blocking front will keep the system away, but all this is too early to be forecast at this time. Charts show that trends are down. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said deliveries were 500 contracts today and now total 500 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 155.00 and 147.50 November. Support is at 155.00, 154.00, and 153.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 162.50, and 163.50 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York on follow through speculative buying tied to ideas of short supplies and little offer from origin. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential. Speculators were the best buyers, and Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. London was a little lower in consolidation trading. Sao Paulo was near unchanged. Chart trends turned mixed for the short term in London, but remain generally up in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.466 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 131 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 231.80 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The ICO said that world Coffee exports were 7.35 million bags in July, from 8.20 million last year. Year to date exports are now 88.9 million bags, up 14.1% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 281.00, 279.00, and 277.00 December, and resistance is at 290.00, 293.00, and 300.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2250 November, and resistance is at 2410, 2420, and 2430 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 372.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 367.00, 365.00, and 358.00 December, and resistance is at 377.00, 380.00, and 384.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and a little lower in London yesterday in consolidation trading. It was a quiet market. Traders are weighing bullish and bearish factors for pricing Sugar these days. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control.. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Chart trends turned down with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Thailand sold 54,000 tons of Raw Sugar overnight. Russian Sugar production from imported Raws is now 2/325 million tons, up 22.7% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2820 October. Support is at 2930, 2910, and 2890 October, and resistance is at 3025, 3040, and 3060 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 742.00 and 703.00 October. Support is at 761.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 788.00, 797.00, and 801.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and higher in London along with many other commodities futures markets. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.892 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.408 million tons, up 23.5% from last year. Brazil arrivals were 72,023 bags this week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3050, and 3010 December, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3240 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1935, 1920, and 1890 December, with resistance at 1960, 1975, and 1990 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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