COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday as traders prepared for the USDA reports today. The reports were considered positive for prices today. Another week of poor export sales was also negative. Weather was a factor once again, with big rains in the Southeast threatening to damage Cotton there and reports of floods in Pakistan that could hurt Cotton there. In addition, news that China wants to stockpile Cotton once prices drop helped spark the rally. Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but are trying to turn up. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Little rain is in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. Delta and Southeast areas should dry out after the storm over the weekend.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Sunday, then near to above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal through the weekend and above normal next week. The USDA average spot price is now 107.36 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.019 million bales, from 0.018 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 120.00 and 134.00 October. Support is at 110.00, 107.00, and 105.00 October, with resistance of 114.00, 116.00, and 120.00 October.
09/12 07:32 CDT September 12 U.S. cotton highlights – USDA
September 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the
following key U.S. crop information on cotton in its monthly world
supply-and-demand report.
The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.
COTTON
(mln 480 pounds/bales)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Aug Sept
Planted (mln acre) 9.15 10.97 13.73 14.72
Harvested (mln acre) 7.53 10.70 9.67 9.85
Yield/acre 777 812 822 807
Production 12.19 18.10 16.55 16.56
Exports 12.04 14.38 12.30 12.00
Ending stocks 2.95 2.60 3.30 3.40
DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings Report-Sep 12
Figures are for cotton ginned prior to September 1, for 2008-11
crops. State breakdown is for upland cotton, unless denoted pima. In
running bales. (d) denotes withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
gins.
Running Bales Ginned by Crop,
States and United States: September 1, 2008-2011
(Excluding linters)
=============================================================================
Crop and State Running bales ginned
——————————————————–
2008 2009 2010 2011
=============================================================================
All cotton
Texas 334,650 110,100 286,700 824,600
United States 334,650 110,100 286,700 824,600
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 250,386
: Positions
: 40,530 113,919 46,392 20,439 17,957 39,207 7,876 17,395 14,867 1,862 58,259
: Changes from: August 30, 2011
: -1,626 -2,355 -42 -1,630 2,004 -982 93 1,148 -800 -56 -274
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.2 45.5 18.5 8.2 7.2 15.7 3.1 6.9 5.9 0.7 23.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 251
: 35 43 17 17 22 71 22 36 56 21 49
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Charts show that trends are up again. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for widely scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 13 contracts today and now total 597 contracts for the month. USDA estimated Florida production at 139.0 million boxes, from 139.0 million in July. US production was estimated at 201.9 million boxes, from 201.9 million in July.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 163.50, 162.50, and 160.00 November, with resistance at 170.00, 173.00, and 175.00 November.
DJ USDA 2011 US Crop Production: Citrus Fruits-Sep 12
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States
and United States: 2010-2011,
and Forecasted Aug 1, 2011
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
=============================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized production
Boxes 1/ Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ========================================================-
2010-2011 2011-12 2010-2011 2011-2012
=============================================================================
======== 1,000 boxes ======== ========- 1,000 tons ======
Oranges
Early, mid, and navel 2/
California 48,000 44,000 1,920 1,760
Florida 70,000 3,150
Texas 1,700 72
United States 119,700 5,142
Valencia
California 13,000 520
Florida 69,000 3,105
Texas 249 11
United States 82,249 3,636
All
California 61,000 2,440
Florida 139,000 6,255
Texas 1,949 83
United States 201,949 8,778
==============================================================================
1/ Net pounds per box: California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of
tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 31,811
: Positions
: 8,220 23,466 4,216 377 11 9,150 788 391 909 126 5,681
: Changes from: August 30, 2011
: -834 540 197 -500 -9 182 -231 -22 20 -17 58
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 25.8 73.8 13.3 1.2 0.0 28.8 2.5 1.2 2.9 0.4 17.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90
: 22 19 9 . . 24 6 4 17 6 17
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower in New York and Sao Paulo as the US Dollar moved higher and as October options went off the Board. The lack of deliveries against September contracts helped support futures in New York, as did the continuing drop in certified stocks. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential, but we have heard that there was little or no damage done to flowers. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term in all markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.4483 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 2 contracts today and now total 140 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 219.46 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. European stocks were 13.6 million bags in July, up 138,797 bags from June.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 265.00, 263.00, and 257.00 December, and resistance is at 273.00, 277.00, and 279.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2055 November, and resistance is at 2210, 2235, and 2250 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 347.00 and 330.00 December. Support is at 347.00, 338.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 365.00, 367.00, and 377.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 180,157
: Positions
: 43,010 84,771 30,403 10,796 7,428 32,430 8,216 13,379 912 4,844 44,724
: Changes from: August 30, 2011
: 96 5,437 466 -387 87 4,898 335 1,087 240 -144 -457
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.9 47.1 16.9 6.0 4.1 18.0 4.6 7.4 0.5 2.7 24.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 358
: 83 102 21 11 14 93 30 50 38 50 65
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little lower Friday in consolidation trading. Reports that Thailand could have much more Sugar for export hurt the bulls. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Chart trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Russia has produced 2.336 million tons of Refined Sugar from imported Raw, up 23.2% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2640, and 2610 March, and resistance is at 2820, 2830, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 699.00, and 689.00 December, and resistance is at 715.00, 716.00, and 733.00 December.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: US Sugar-Sep 12
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
=====================================================================
Item 2009/2010 2010/2011
prev Sep 12 prev Sep 12
=====================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 1,498 1,498 1,785 1,745
Production 2/ 7,946 7,946 8,110 7,935
Beet sugar 4,800 4,800 4,750 4,575
Cane sugar 3,146 3,146 3,360 3,360
Florida 1,433 1,433 1,630 1,630
Hawaii 170 170 170 170
Lousiana 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400
Texas 143 143 160 160
Imports 3,826 3,786 2,962 2,962
TRQ 3/ 1,882 1,842 1,384 1,384
Other program 4/ 300 300 350 350
Other 5/ 1,644 1,644 1,228 1,228
Mexico 1,624 1,624 1,218 1,218
Total supply 13,270 13,230 12,857 12,642
Exports 250 250 200 200
Deliveries 11,235 11,235 11,315 11,315
Food 11,000 11,000 11,125 11,125
Other 6/ 235 235 190 190
Miscellaneous 7/ 0 0 0 0
Total use 11,485 11,485 11,515 11,515
Ending stocks 1,785 1,745 1,342 1,127
Stocks to use ratio 10.4 15.2 11.7 9.8
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 840,401
: Positions
: 140,855 356,019 137,065 102,965 69,736 141,334 10,138 59,591 29,410 4,866 168,359
: Changes from: August 30, 2011
: 2,146 -12,404 -439 -2,111 -2,903 -5,161 5,364 3,502 535 237 694
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.8 42.4 16.3 12.3 8.3 16.8 1.2 7.1 3.5 0.6 20.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 241
: 54 63 19 12 27 60 12 34 29 43 63
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London Friday on what was termed follow through speculative long liquidation. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. But, the export declarations remain strong and well ahead of last year. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.857 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. Ghana Cocoa purchases are 5,588 tons this week. Ivory Coast purchases are now 1.408 million tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2790 December. Support is at 2850, 2830, and 2810 December, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2930 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1855, 1840, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1890, 1920, and 1935 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 190,738
: Positions
: 85,313 105,129 19,505 10,610 3,897 31,222 22,534 18,737 2,154 1,950 20,641
: Changes from: August 30, 2011
: 552 1,477 56 -454 161 228 -838 2,055 164 -116 669
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 44.7 55.1 10.2 5.6 2.0 16.4 11.8 9.8 1.1 1.0 10.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 171
: 32 42 16 5 11 43 31 26 16 15 20
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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