COTTON

General Comments: Futures closed lower after another week of very poor export sales. China continues to cancel purchases, and this loss of demand is coming at a time of less production in the US the lost demand will hurt any rally attempts now even with less production here. Weather was a factor once again, but this influence is fading as the harvest expands in the US. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but price action yesterday implies that trends could turn down today. Demand remains soft with a lot of export competition around. Dry weather in Texas is less of a factor now that the harvest is moving forward, and Delta and Southeastern areas will welcome drier conditions although showers are in the forecast for part of the weekend.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but light showers are possible. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal.

Texas will be mostly dry or will get light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 107.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.021 million bales, from 0.019 million yesterday. USDA said that its weekly world market price for Upland Cotton is now 100.57 ct/lb.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 110.00, 107.00, and 105.00 October, with resistance of 114.00, 116.00, and 120.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Traders are looking for news, but right now the weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Charts show that trends are up again. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for widely scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 599 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 162.00, 160.00, and 159.00 November, with resistance at 167.00, 168.50, and 170.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower in all markets as traders talked about big production potential from Brazil and demand fears. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential, but we have heard that there was little or no damage done to flowers. Producers there remain concerned due to a cold and dry Winter until now. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term in all markets.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little higher today and are about 1.446 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 43 contracts today and now total 369 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 213.38 ct/lb.

Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Colombia produced 466,000 bags of Coffee in August, from 615,000 bags last year. Exports were 374,000 bags, from 599,000 bags last year. Vietnam expects to produce about 18 million bags of Coffee in 2011-12, down 5% from earlier estimates due to poor weather.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 257.00, 252.00, and 249.50 December, and resistance is at 263.00, 265.00, and 268.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2020, 1995, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2090, 2140, and 2210 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 330.00 December. Support is at 338.00, 330.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00, 356.00, and 358.00 December.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed mostly higher yesterday, but October in New York closed with losses and October in London closed with only small gains as October gets ready to go off the Board in both markets. October London stopped trading yesterday. Traders were talking about the European crisis and less demand potential, but supplies and offers are likely to increase soon. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control. Thailand has a lot for export as well. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Some talk was seen on the wires that a lack of investment in production in Brazil could keep production there down for the next few seasons. Chart trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. LIFFE said that 110,000 tons of Brazilian Sugar were delivered against the October contract that is now off the Board. Russia has now produced 2.4 million tons of White Sugar from imported Raws this calendar year, up 25.3% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2720, and 2640 March, and resistance is at 2840, 2860, and 2930 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 713.00, 700.00, and 699.00 December, and resistance is at 724.00, 733.00, and 750.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday. Origin was said to be the best seller. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around. Trends are down on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.

Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.012 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 13 contracts for the month. Ivory Coast export declarations are now 1.349 million tons for this year, up 30% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2790 December.

Support is at 2740, 2715, and 2685 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2900 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1800, 1785, and 1770 December, with resistance at 1830, 1840, and 1890 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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