COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow through speculative selling. China continues to cancel purchases, and this loss of demand is coming at a time of less production in the US The lost demand will hurt any rally attempts now even with less production here. Weather was a factor once again, but this influence is fading as the harvest expands in the US. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but price action yesterday implies that trends could turn down this week. Demand remains soft with a lot of export competition around. However, Chinese demand could start to increase soon as the government there is releasing new low tariff import quotas. Dry weather in Texas is less of a factor now that the harvest is moving forward, and Delta and Southeastern areas will welcome drier conditions although showers are in the forecast for part of the weekend.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible today and Thursday. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal this week, but near to below normal on Friday. Texas will be mostly dry, but some rain is possible on Wednesday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average spot price is now 105.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.029 million bales, from 0.026 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 100.00 and 95.00 October. Support is at 107.00, 105.00, and 101.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 114.00, and 116.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 262,224
: Positions
: 46,281 124,097 46,413 21,076 18,329 38,894 4,552 19,096 13,314 2,383 61,771
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 5,751 10,178 21 637 372 -313 -3,324 1,701 -1,553 521 3,512
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.6 47.3 17.7 8.0 7.0 14.8 1.7 7.3 5.1 0.9 23.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 250
: 33 43 17 18 23 75 16 39 54 23 50
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed little changed in very quiet trading. Traders are looking for news, but right now the weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm prices appear to be in a range. Florida has seen scattered showers and storms and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for widely scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 599 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 160.00, 159.00, and 155.00 November, with resistance at 165.00, 167.00, and 168.50 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,091
: Positions
: 8,404 24,737 4,204 395 6 9,872 465 441 927 130 6,040
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 184 1,272 -12 18 -5 723 -323 50 19 4 359
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 25.4 74.8 12.7 1.2 0.0 29.8 1.4 1.3 2.8 0.4 18.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90
: 19 19 9 . . 26 . . 14 9 17
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and Sao Paulo as traders talked about big production potential from Brazil and demand fears. London rallied on news that Vietnam would stockpile 43,000 tons of Coffee in the country to support world prices. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential, but we have heard that there was little or no damage done to flowers. Producers there remain concerned due to a cold and dry Winter until now. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term in all markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 1.446 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 11 contracts today and now total 380 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 214.04 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 256.00, 252.00, and 249.50 December, and resistance is at 263.00, 265.00, and 268.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2055, 2030, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2140, 2210, and 2220 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 330.00 December. Support is at 338.00, 330.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00, 356.00, and 358.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 175,913
: Positions
: 43,562 83,718 31,101 11,839 7,445 31,433 8,156 13,100 676 5,161 41,171
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 552 -1,052 697 1,043 17 -998 -60 -279 -236 317 -3,553
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.8 47.6 17.7 6.7 4.2 17.9 4.6 7.4 0.4 2.9 23.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 338
: 78 96 19 13 17 87 27 43 33 47 62
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower Friday on news that India could export 2.8 million tons of Sugar this year due to increased production and on speculative long liquidation as futures prices moved through chart support areas. Traders were talking about the European crisis and less demand potential, and supplies and offers are likely to increase soon. China is said to need to import 1.0 million tons this year, but it looks like there will be more than enough Sugar to fill the order. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Thailand has a lot for export as well. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Some talk was seen on the wires that a lack of investment in production in Brazil could keep production there down for the next few seasons. Chart trends are down after the price action on Friday.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. India expects to set its export policy by mid October. It said it should have supplies of about 31 million tons and demand of about 22 million tons. It will most likely allow exports of at least 500,000 tons and most likely in batches.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2550 March. Support is at 2610, 2560, and 2540 March, and resistance is at 2720, 2730, and 2840 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 683.00 and 655.00 December. Support is at 680.00, 675.00, and 667.00 December, and resistance is at 699.00, 700.00, and 713.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 818,345
: Positions
: 129,523 343,497 132,637 101,659 68,343 140,963 6,328 61,097 29,203 5,045 166,695
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: -11,332 -12,522 -4,428 -1,307 -1,393 -372 -3,811 1,506 -207 179 -1,663
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.8 42.0 16.2 12.4 8.4 17.2 0.8 7.5 3.6 0.6 20.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 247
: 57 66 19 12 27 64 11 35 34 36 61
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London Friday. Origin was said to be the best seller. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around. Trends are down on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.003 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 13 contracts for the month. Ivory Coast purchases are now 1.416 million tons this year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2740, 2715, and 2685 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2900 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1800, 1785, and 1770 December, with resistance at 1830, 1840, and 1890 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 205,949
: Positions
: 93,787 106,407 19,434 10,547 4,188 28,983 26,810 26,585 2,792 2,584 21,235
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 8,474 1,278 -70 -64 291 -2,238 4,276 7,847 637 634 594
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 45.5 51.7 9.4 5.1 2.0 14.1 13.0 12.9 1.4 1.3 10.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 183
: 37 41 16 8 12 36 41 25 22 15 19
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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