COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower much of the day, but found some late short covering interest to close with only small losses. Traders were worried once again about the Greek and European debt crisis and what it could do to demand. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world as it seems that world economies remain in trouble. Chart trends are turning down for the short term with the price action yesterday. Demand remains soft with a lot of export competition around. However, Chinese demand could start to increase soon as the government there is releasing new low tariff import quotas. Dry weather in Texas is less of a factor now that the harvest is moving forward, and Delta and Southeastern areas will welcome drier conditions although showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible late this weekend. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal this week, but near to below normal on Friday. Texas will be mostly dry, but some rain is possible on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to below normal, then near to above normal this weekend. The USDA average spot price is now 100.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.028 million bales, from 0.029 million yesterday. China imported 207,028 tons of Cotton in August, down 14% from lst year. Calendar year to date imports are now 1.69 million tons, down 13% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 100.00 and 95.00 October. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 October.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report – Sep 20
For Sep 16 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 70,654 1,440 45.3 51,942 986 33.3
HEDGING
Total 85,241 286 54.7 103,953 238 66.7
GRAND TOTAL: 155,895 1,726 100.0 155,895 1,224 100.0

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher in very quiet trading yesterday. November was the leader as the Movement and Pack report showed declining inventories once again. Traders are looking for news, but right now the weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm prices appear to be in a range. Florida has seen scattered showers and storms and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for widely scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 599 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to perhaps up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 160.00 November, with resistance at 170.00, 173.00, and 175.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Sep 20
In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
2010-2011
Sep 10 Sep 03 Year Ago
MOVEMENT
Retail 129,995 137,625 46,585
Institutional 260,066 342,536 266,085
Bulk 1,489,537 1,789,990 2,054,469
Total 1,879,598 2,270,152 2,367,138
Cumulative 142,854,613 140,975,015 122,587,607
IMPORTS
Foreign 1,647,049 470,917 0
Cumulative 18,320,310 16,673,261 21,322,893
RECEIPTS
Domestic 0 7,218 0
PACK
Retail 97,169 98,487 149,868
Institutional 283,620 327,662 283,245
Bulk 343,553 557,908 628,712
Less Reprocessed 724,341 984,057 1,061,825
Net 0 0 0
Cumulative 82,091,651 82,091,651 82,252,237
Inventory 57,150,406 57,417,048 101,934,567

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mixed yesterday, with London holding higher, but New York and Sao Paulo seeing more selling pressure later in the day. London continues strong as Vietnam moves to hold supplies off the market.. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around. Some say Brazil could produce 60 million bags this year. Producers there remain concerned due to a cold and dry Winter until now. The cold is gone, but it is till dry in Coffee areas. Rain is needed for flowering there. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term in all markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.438 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 20 contracts today and now total 428 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 213.50 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather this week and some rain this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 1.55 million bags in August, down 12.5% from last year. Year to date exports are now 24.65 million bags, up 12% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 256.00, 252.00, and 249.50 December, and resistance is at 265.00, 266.00, and 268.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2220 and 2310 November. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2055 November, and resistance is at 2210, 2220, and 2235 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 330.00 December. Support is at 338.00, 330.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00, 356.00, and 358.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mixed after tr5ading both sides of unchanged. Traders were talking about the European crisis and less demand potential, and supplies and offers are likely to increase soon. However, good demand was reported yesterday by traders as end users try to take advantage of the latest down move. India could produce less than expectations and that the export program will not be strong. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Some talk was seen on the wires that a lack of investment in production in Brazil could keep production there down for the next few seasons. Chart trends are still down after the price action on Friday.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. India estimates 2011-12 Sugar production at 24.6 million tons. Tunisia bough 28,000 tons of Raw and White Sugar overnight. China imported 423,794 tons of Sugar in August, up 42% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 1.2 million tons, up 19% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2550 March. Support is at 2610, 2560, and 2540 March, and resistance is at 2720, 2730, and 2840 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 655.00 December. Support is at 677.00, 675.00, and 667.00 December, and resistance is at 692.00, 699.00, and 700.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London yesterday in recovery trading. Cocoa keeps flowing and as end users seem to be covered. Origin was said to be the best seller. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around. Trends are down on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.002 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 13 contracts for the month. Rain has suspended Cocoa harvesting in Nigeria for now.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2715, 2685, and 2650 December, with resistance at 2790, 2830, and 2850 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1750, 1720, and 1700 December, with resistance at 1800, 1815, and 1830 December.

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