COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher as mills and commercials bought and were stronger than the speculative selling interest. Speculators were worried once again about the Greek and European debt crisis and what it could do to demand, and commercials took advantage to get some buying done for the short crop. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world as it seems that world economies remain in trouble. Chart trends are turning down for the short term with the price action last week. Demand remains soft with a lot of export competition around. However, Chinese demand could start to increase soon. Dry weather in Texas is less of a factor now that the harvest is moving forward, and Delta and Southeastern areas will welcome drier conditions although showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible in eastern and southern areas today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 96.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.029 million bales, from 0.028 million yesterday. ICE said that 33 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 33 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 95.00 December. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 104.00, 105.00, and 107.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 255,819
: Positions
: 49,519 118,007 44,683 19,728 19,559 36,235 5,252 19,540 10,690 2,584 59,740
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 3,238 -6,090 -1,729 -1,348 1,230 -2,658 701 444 -2,624 202 -2,031
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.4 46.1 17.5 7.7 7.6 14.2 2.1 7.6 4.2 1.0 23.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 244
: 35 42 17 17 23 67 23 37 45 27 52
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower again Friday in response to fears about world economic conditions and on Florida weather. Speculators were selling all commodities on talk that the world economic system could collapse. Traders are looking for news, but right now the weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm prices appear to be in a range. Florida has seen scattered showers and storms and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 599 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 155.00 and 147.50 November. Support is at 155.00, 154.00, and 153.00 November, with resistance at 159.00, 160.00, and 162.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,046
: Positions
: 8,219 24,856 4,195 400 6 10,011 437 356 821 184 5,888
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: -184 119 -9 5 0 139 -28 -85 -106 54 -151
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.9 75.2 12.7 1.2 0.0 30.3 1.3 1.1 2.5 0.6 17.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87
: 18 20 9 . . 25 . . 11 11 16
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower again Friday on demand fears and fears of a world economic collapse. Speculators were huge sellers as they had been most of the week, and roasters were noted doing some buying. Prices could recover part of the losses of last week if speculators are done selling for now. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around. Some say Brazil could produce 60 million bags this year. Producers there remain concerned due to a cold and dry Winter until now. The cold is gone, but it is till dry in Coffee areas. Rain is needed for flowering there. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are down for the short term in all markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.434 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 193.12 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 231.00, 227.00, and 225.00 December, and resistance is at 235.00, 241.50, and 249.50 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1925 and 1790 November. Support is at 1930, 1860, and 1840 November, and resistance is at 1995, 2020, and 2030 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 304.00, 297.00, and 295.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 320.00, and 323.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 177,673
: Positions
: 46,170 82,391 30,927 11,632 7,480 28,792 9,512 13,031 816 4,734 43,991
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 2,608 -1,328 -174 -207 35 -2,641 1,355 -69 141 -427 2,820
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.0 46.4 17.4 6.5 4.2 16.2 5.4 7.3 0.5 2.7 24.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 339
: 83 98 19 13 17 82 25 45 35 48 66
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower again Friday in liquidation trading in response to ideas of a world economic collapse. Traders were talking about the European crisis and less demand potential, and supplies and offers are likely to increase soon. India could produce less than expectations and that the export program will not be strong. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Some talk was seen on the wires that a lack of investment in production in Brazil could keep production there down for the next few seasons. Chart trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Egypt bought 50,000 tons of Brazilian Sugar over the weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2330, and 2250 March, and resistance is at 2530, 2640, and 2720 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 625.00, 620.00, and 618.00 December, and resistance is at 646.00, 657.00, and 667.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 692,964
: Positions
: 115,726 313,855 140,264 88,378 50,136 124,873 6,513 42,151 25,307 5,505 108,616
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: -13,798 -29,642 7,627 -13,280 -18,207 -16,090 185 -18,946 -3,897 461 -58,080
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.7 45.3 20.2 12.8 7.2 18.0 0.9 6.1 3.7 0.8 15.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 216
: 51 60 20 11 23 56 6 25 25 35 52
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday on ideas of over supply in the market for Cocoa and world economics. Cocoa keeps flowing and as end users seem to be covered. Origin and speculators were said to be the best seller, but commercial buying was noted as well. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around. Trends are down on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.974 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 13 contracts for the month. Ivory Coast Cocoa purchases are now 1.448 million tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2620, 2590, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2650, 2660, and 2685 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 and 1480 December. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1660 December, with resistance at 1800, 1815, and 1830 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 216,378
: Positions
: 101,542 101,994 19,909 10,632 5,286 28,661 36,421 25,806 2,698 3,022 23,523
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 7,755 -4,413 475 85 1,098 -322 9,611 -779 -94 438 2,289
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.9 47.1 9.2 4.9 2.4 13.2 16.8 11.9 1.2 1.4 10.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 200
: 39 41 17 7 12 32 56 27 22 18 22
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