COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed mixed to a little higher Friday in light volume trading. All the strength was in the nearby months. A positive export sales report helped the bulls. Small funds and mills were said to be the best buyers. Weather overall remains a supportive factor, as Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. There is a tropical storm that could have damaged quality if it moved through Louisiana and Mississippi and then farther east. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions after the former tropical system pulls out of the Southeast today. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Sunday. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average spot price is now 104.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.016 million bales, from 0.016 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 105.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 108.00, 110.00, and 112.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 250,576
: Positions
: 42,155 116,275 46,434 22,068 15,952 40,189 7,783 16,248 15,666 1,917 58,533
: Changes from: August 23, 2011
: 1,756 -339 -468 -363 123 -2,539 448 2,226 435 -250 -472
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.8 46.4 18.5 8.8 6.4 16.0 3.1 6.5 6.3 0.8 23.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 253
: 35 43 17 18 23 67 24 31 54 26 51
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed before the long weekend. Traders are now more interested in the tropical system, Katia, seen in the Atlantic. The system still appears likely to move close to the East Coast once again, although for now it does not appear likely to hit Florida or even the East Coast. It is possible that a blocking front will keep the system away, and this is the front carrying the remanents of Lee northward. Charts show that trends are down. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said deliveries were 18 contracts today and now total 575 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 160.00, 159.00, and 155.00 November, with resistance at 162.50, 163.50, and 165.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 32,260
: Positions
: 9,054 22,926 4,019 877 20 8,967 1,019 413 889 143 5,623
: Changes from: August 23, 2011
: 344 -964 109 0 0 -652 207 -145 -385 -64 -42
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.1 71.1 12.5 2.7 0.1 27.8 3.2 1.3 2.8 0.4 17.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 91
: 22 19 9 . 4 23 8 . 13 9 17
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York in all markets on Friday and lower in London and Sao Paulo again yesterday. It was a pretty quiet session. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential. Speculators were the best buyers, and Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. London was lower on speculative selling, and trends in this market have turned down. Sao Paulo was near unchanged. Chart trends turned mixed for the short term in London, but remain generally up in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.467 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 138 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 230.74 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Mexico expects to produce at least 4.5 million bags of Coffee in 2011-12, up 9% from the current crop year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 282.00, 281.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 290.00, 293.00, and 300.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2220 November. Support is at 2250, 2235, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2335, 2410, and 2420 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 372.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 367.00, 365.00, and 358.00 December, and resistance is at 377.00, 380.00, and 384.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 173,288
: Positions
: 42,913 79,334 29,937 11,183 7,341 27,532 7,881 12,292 672 4,988 45,181
: Changes from: August 23, 2011
: -218 7,917 -665 -4 682 4,124 -4,282 3,517 -253 118 6,033
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.8 45.8 17.3 6.5 4.2 15.9 4.5 7.1 0.4 2.9 26.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 341
: 81 98 20 11 16 83 32 45 32 50 66
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York on Friday and lower in London Friday and yesterday on what appeared to be speculative profit taking. It was a quiet market. Traders are weighing bullish and bearish factors for pricing Sugar these days. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control.. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Chart trends turned down with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Kingsman estimated the 2011-12 global Sugar production surplus at 9.161 million tons. It estimates production at 173.24 million tons and consumption at 164.08 million tons. Thailand could export 3.3 million tons of White Sugar on production increases in the country. India could export 2.6 million tons of Sugar in 2011-12 due to strong production. Russia has produced 309,700 tons of Sugar from beets so far this year, from 221,000 tons last year. Brazil said that 2010-11 Sugar production was 38.17 million tons and that 2011-12 production should be near 37.07 million tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2890, 2870, and 2850 October, and resistance is at 2930, 2950, and 3000 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 742.00 and 703.00 October. Support is at 747.00, 744.00, and 735.00 October, and resistance is at 758.00, 761.00, and 766.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 844,364
: Positions
: 138,709 368,423 137,504 105,076 72,639 146,495 4,774 56,089 28,875 4,629 167,665
: Changes from: August 23, 2011
: 3,314 -21,182 -3,777 17,850 2,167 1,709 1,073 1,143 -5,264 -177 746
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.4 43.6 16.3 12.4 8.6 17.3 0.6 6.6 3.4 0.5 19.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 238
: 54 64 20 12 28 64 9 33 31 36 58
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York Friday and lower in London yesterday. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.894 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. Ivory Coast export declarations are now 1.313 million tons, up 29.7% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3050, 3010, and 2950 December, with resistance at 3125, 3150, and 3180 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1935, 1920, and 1890 December, with resistance at 1960, 1975, and 1990 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 187,511
: Positions
: 84,762 103,652 19,449 11,064 3,736 30,994 23,371 16,682 1,990 2,066 19,972
: Changes from: August 23, 2011
: -585 5,444 1,804 161 -111 -15 -3,603 376 -252 -226 -680
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 45.2 55.3 10.4 5.9 2.0 16.5 12.5 8.9 1.1 1.1 10.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 167
: 34 41 16 7 12 42 28 28 13 18 18
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