COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday on fund and other speculator buying. It was a relatively high volume session. Weather was a factor once again, with big rains in the Southeast threatening to damage Cotton there and reports of floods in Pakistan that could hurt Cotton there. In addition, news that China wants to stockpile Cotton once prices drop helped spark the rally. Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but are trying to turn up. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Little rain is in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. Delta and Southeast areas should dry out after the storm over the weekend.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Sunday, then near to above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal through the weekend and above normal next week. The USDA average spot price is now 109.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.016 million yesterday. USDA said that its world market average Upland Cotton price is now 92.80 ct/lb. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 43,700 bales this year and 2,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Pakistan said it could have lost 13% of its crop, or 2 million bales, due to heavy rains at harvest time. Production could be no more than 13.0 to 13.5 million bales, from earlier estimates of 15 million bales.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 120.00 and 134.00 October. Support is at 110.00, 107.00, and 105.00 October, with resistance of 116.00, 120.00, and 123.00 October.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures, and there are no tropical systems in sight that look ready to move into the state. Charts show that trends are up again. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for widely scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE said deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 584 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 163.50 November, with resistance at 170.00, 173.00, and 175.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York as the US Dollar moved higher. London and Sao Paulo were higher, also on the US Dollar. The lack of deliveries against September contracts helped support futures in New York, as did the continuing drop in certified stocks. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential, but we have heard that there was little or no damage done to flowers. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term in all markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.448 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 138 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 229.07 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 281.00, 279.00, and 277.00 December, and resistance is at 285.00, 290.00, and 293.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2090, and 2055 November, and resistance is at 2235, 2250, and 2280 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 365.00, 358.00, and 356.00 December, and resistance is at 377.00, 380.00, and 384.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher in New York and a little lower in London yesterday in consolidation trading. Reports that Thailand could have much more Sugar for export hurt the bulls. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Chart trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2780 and 2670 October. Support is at 2840, 2810, and 2750 October, and resistance is at 2910, 2930, and 2950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 703.00 October. Support is at 758.00, 747.00, and 744.00 October, and resistance is at 766.00, 788.00, and 797.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday on what was termed follow through speculative long liquidation. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. But, the export declarations remain strong and well ahead of last year. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.857 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. Ghana Cocoa purchases are 5,588 tons this week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2790 December. Support is at 2900, 2850, and 2830 December, with resistance at 3010, 3050, and 3100 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1880 December. Support is at 1855, 1840, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1890, 1920, and 1935 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Free – Subscribe to receive Weekly Newsletters via Email