A reader writes: “Your October 26th post, “Sell on the Good News”, called the top – precisely! You ARE a genius, after all. If your other readers don’t think picking the turns like that is significant, then they just don’t understand this game. The biggest gains are made by picking the turning points.”

M replies: Well, maybe, sometimes. I do like to pick the turns, which sometimes give me quick rewards.

But let’s not get carried away. Picking the turns too often can result in fighting the tape. The trend deserves more respect than that. Only rarely should one try to pick the change in trend. Most of the time, we do better by sticking with the trend.

Nevertheless, at this time, I feel that the four-month stock price uptrend might have run its course. I am looking to short on temporary price run-ups, but I will cover to take profits during periods of weakness, then hope for another bounce to short again. I am willing to trade minor overbought and oversold extremes. Since the real trend seems uncertain, I am willing to take only relatively light positions at this time.