NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 6 months.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months. Systematically, the IWM/SPY ratio remains bearish.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,360.02) rose 22.13 points or 1.65% on Thursday on news that the ECB is “ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” It was the largest daily gain in nearly 4 weeks.

For the short term, stocks obviously appear to be hypersensitive to the latest news headlines. The fundamental outlooks for the global economy as well as sales and earnings of companies appear mostly bleak, but that means many are now expecting quantitative easing to be announced after the Fed’s FOMC meeting in one week, on 8/1/12.

Beyond the short term, weighing a wide variety of trends and indicators, underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market projecting out weeks and months ahead. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative investors.

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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1333.38 50-day SMA
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1316.96, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) dipped slightly below its 50-day SMA again on 7/26/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. This just after UUP price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/24/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major uptrend. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/2012. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) has been rising for 5 weeks but remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 3 weeks but there is still a substantial gap between these SMAs.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.84, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/25/12, thereby turning systematically neutral from bearish: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with its 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/23/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
20.18% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
16.88% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
2.46% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
10.61% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
16.36% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
2.57% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
4.72% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.72% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
10.41% , TER , TERADYNE
11.21% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
7.02% , PWER , POWER ONE
3.27% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.55% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
10.64% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
8.88% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
2.45% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
6.53% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.70% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
18.36% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
3.88% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
5.27% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
4.68% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.11% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
3.96% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.70% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
3.13% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
5.17% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.69% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.59% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
5.17% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.30% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.56% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.99% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.75% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-9.92% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-10.31% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-3.15% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-4.69% , BCR , C R BARD
-6.27% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.14% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-1.66% , WPO , Washington Post
-3.60% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-3.74% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.72% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.32% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-3.39% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-2.52% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-2.04% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.90% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.45% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.90% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-3.25% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-2.67% , HUM , HUMANA
-3.42% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.03% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-1.86% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.58% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.29% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.91% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.18% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.23% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.67% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.68% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.94% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-2.93% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.92% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
7.15% Spain Index, EWP
6.53% Italy Index, EWI
5.17% France Index, EWQ
4.83% EMU Europe Index, EZU
4.72% Netherlands Index, EWN
4.21% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
4.17% Austria Index, EWO
4.01% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.90% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.88% European VIPERs, VGK
3.62% Belgium Index, EWK
3.52% Germany Index, EWG
3.31% Brazil Index, EWZ
3.27% Sweden Index, EWD
3.11% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
3.05% EAFE Index, EFA
3.02% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.85% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.83% Mexico Index, EWW
2.78% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.77% United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.72% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.72% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.59% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.54% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.54% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.52% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.51% Energy DJ, IYE
2.49% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.45% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.43% Global 100, IOO
2.26% Russia MV, RSX
2.26% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.26% South Africa Index, EZA
2.20% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.13% South Korea Index, EWY
2.12% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.11% Energy Global, IXC
1.90% Australia Index, EWA
1.90% Dividend International, PID
1.89% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.87% Singapore Index, EWS
1.87% Canada Index, EWC
1.85% Water Resources, PHO
1.79% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.77% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.75% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.75% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.74% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.71% China 25 iS, FXI
1.70% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.69% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.65% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.65% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.64% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.64% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.64% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.64% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.63% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.62% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.61% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.61% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.59% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.58% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.57% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.56% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.56% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.55% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.55% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.54% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.53% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.53% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.53% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.52% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.52% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.51% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.51% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.50% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.49% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.48% Japan Index, EWJ
1.47% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.44% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.42% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.41% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.39% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.34% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.30% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.29% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.28% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.25% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.22% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.13% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.13% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.03% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.00% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.99% India PS, PIN
0.96% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.94% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.94% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.92% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.92% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.92% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.90% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.89% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.87% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.87% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.86% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.83% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.83% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.81% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.81% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.81% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.77% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.76% Networking, IGN
0.71% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.67% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.60% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.51% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.47% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.43% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.31% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.16% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.14% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.31% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.60% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.92% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.67% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH