Forexpros – Natural gas futures swung between gains and losses during U.S. morning trade on Tuesday, as forecasts showing warmer-than-normal weather across key parts of the U.S. in the coming week countered ongoing concerns over elevated U.S. storage levels.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in August traded at USD2.811 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, gaining 0.35%.
It earlier fell by as much as 1.55% to trade at a session low of USD2.757 per million British thermal units.
A recent bout of hot weather across much of the country over the last several weeks helped boost natural gas prices. Spot prices have rallied nearly 22% in the past four weeks, as extreme heat conditions in the U.S. mid-Atlantic boosted demand for the fuel.
Industry weather group MDA EarthSat said Monday that it expected above-normal temperatures to linger across the northern half of the U.S. for the next two weeks, but readings in southern states were forecast to remain near normal.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as forecasts are calling for temperatures as much as 20 degrees above normal.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning, boosting demand for natural gas. Natural gas accounts for about a quarter of U.S. electricity generation.
But traders were weary of pushing prices too high amid ongoing concerns over elevated U.S. storage levels.
The U.S. EIA said in its weekly supply report last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 33 billion cubic feet, above market expectations for an increase of 26 billion cubic feet.
Inventories rose by 87 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 90 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.
Total U.S. gas supplies stood at 3.135 trillion cubic feet last week, 21% above last year’s level and 20% above the five-year average level for that week.
U.S. gas inventories did not hit the milestone 3 trillion cubic feet level until August 31 of last year. Stocks peaked last year in November at a record 3.852 trillion cubic feet.
Market analysts have warned that without strong demand through the rest of the summer, gas inventories will reach the limits of available capacity later this year.
The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by at least another 300 billion cubic feet in the 18 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin to avoid breaching the government’s 4.1 trillion cubic feet estimate of total capacity.
Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 13 billion cubic feet to 55 billion cubic feet, compared to last year’s build of 67 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 74 billion cubic feet.
From a technical standpoint, market participants noted that prices were expected to face strong resistance near the USD3.00-mark, a level widely considered to be where gas loses its appeal over coal for power generation.
Prices hit a seven-month high of USD3.023 on July 6, but have lost nearly 5% since then.
Speculation that utility providers in the U.S. were switching from pricier coal to cheaper natural gas helped boost prices off a 10-year low of USD1.902 hit in mid-April.
Natural gas prices are up nearly 35% since touching a decade-low on April 20.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in September dropped 1% to trade at USD87.86 a barrel, while heating oil for August delivery shed 0.2% to trade at USD2.821 per gallon.
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