By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas rose again today, surprising market speculators. The commodity is trading at 2.62 up 0.038 or 1.49%. Amidst economic slowdowns, drops in manufacturing and growth, reduced demand, there is little in the way to account for the increase in NG prices. The dollar is trading strong and crude oil is hitting new lows with excessive inventories.
Gas futures prices have rebounded from its nine month’s low on threat from tropical storm formation in Gulf coast region. As per National Hurricane Center, there is 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation very close to Gulf region, which may lead for supply and production disturbances. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 64 BCF in the last week .This represents an implied net injection of 62 Bcf from the previous week. This week’s injection was 25 Bcf below the 5-year (2007-2011) injection of 87 Bcf, and 28 Bcf below last year’s injection of 90 Bcf. Since April 27, injections of working natural gas into underground storage have fallen short of both year-ago levels and the 5-year average, although stocks remain well above historical levels. Demand has been climbed up by 2.21 percent, highly contributed by power sector in the last week. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption. Most energy producers will switch to NG for their overflow production but not for their basic production as they have long term contracts with coal suppliers.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 22, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
105.3 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
113.9 |
112.3 |
113.2 |
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
97.3 |
99.8 |
100.8 |
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
||
CAD |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
CAD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.2% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
WEEKLY
- Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Jun 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.7 |
25th-30th |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.3% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
|
Jun 26 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-18.8B |
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-2.6% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
64.9 |
|
Jun 27 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.2% |
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
32.4K |
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
21 |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.2% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-5.5% |
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
8:30 |
GBP |
Current Account |
-8.5B |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
||
8:30 |
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
12:30 |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.6% |
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
0.81 |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.5% |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 25 09:10 Norway
Jun 25 09:30 Germany
Jun 25 10:00 Belgium
Jun 25 15:30 Italy
Jun 26 00:30 Japan
Jun 26 08:30 Holland
Jun 26 08:30 Spain
Jun 26 09:10 Italy
Jun 26 09:30 UK
Jun 26 14:30 UK
Jun 26 17:00 US
Jun 27 09:10 Italy
Jun 27 09:10 Sweden
Jun 27 17:00 US
Jun 28 09:10 Italy
Jun 28 17:00 US
Click here to read Natural Gas Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here