By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas continued to climb moving up to trade at 2.916, after NYMEX near-by futures prices appear to have bottomed at US$1.91 per mmbtu on April 19 and then climbing to US$2.49 in May and US$2.77 in late June. Only the very lowest-cost of the ‘liquids-rich shale’s such as the Eagle Ford and Marcellus can operate profitably at prices below US$2. The ‘dry’ portion of the Marcellus — 85% of it — requires US$3.
But the main event has been the prospect of exports of natural gas to Japan. The proposal is awaiting approval of the Energy Administration, but it is being viewed favorably and would open an entire new business model for exports and producers. Prices continue to climb as speculators await final word from the EIA.
Natural gas prices have also been rising on forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures across the US. The increasing in cooling demand is driving natural gas price higher.
Meanwhile, production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico that may have spurred some of the climb in natural gas prices over the past few days but have dropped dramatically as Tropical Storm Debby has weakened and moved toward Florida. About half of the production that was shut Monday afternoon has come back online.
According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, about 17 percent of the current daily natural gas production in the region has been shut-in. Debby was the first tropical storm of 2012 to disrupt U.S. energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Shutdowns peaked on Monday, when more than 44 percent of daily oil production and a third of daily natural gas production were closed.
Energy companies began returning staff to offshore platforms after the storm veered away from the gulf oil patch and production was rapidly being restarted. The closures will help reduce inventory excesses in the long term.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Releases for June 26, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Jun. 27 |
EUR |
German Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
||
|
EUR |
Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) |
-4.9% |
-8.2% |
-10.0% |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian Business Confidence |
88.9 |
85.5 |
86.6 |
|||
|
NOK |
Norwegian Unemployment Rate |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|||
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
32.8K |
32.1K |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian 6-Month BOT Auction |
2.957% |
2.104% |
||||
|
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
42 |
10 |
21 |
|||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-7.1% |
-0.8% |
||||
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
|||
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|||
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
|||
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.1% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|||
WEEKLY
- Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Click here for further Natural Gas Forecast.
Originally posted here
