Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2012

By FXEmpire.com

Outlook and Recommendation

Natural Gas is trading at 2.09 at this writing, exceeding a 10 year low.

Gas is expected to settle to the bottom in this range and remain here through the summer months.

Natural Gas Inventory (EIA)

Working natural gas in storage as of March 30 totaled 2,479, which is 816 billion cubic feet (Bcf) greater than the 5-year (2007-2011) maximum for that date. Inventories for each week ending in March have been greater than 2,300 Bcf; the next highest March inventory level of any year for the 18 years for which EIA has data is 1,887 Bcf, recorded for the week ending March 3, 2006. The high levels of storage this winter have been the result of abundantsupplies as well as a very mild winter that has reduced demand for natural gas.

• Although temperatures generally remained somewhat higher than normal, natural gas prices increased at many trading points across the country with cooler weather following record-high March temperatures. The Henry Hub price closed at $2.06 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on April 4, up 2 cents for the week.
• At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the May 2012 natural gas contract fell 14.1 cents per MMBtu for the week, closing yesterday at $2.141 per MMBtu.
• Working natural gas in storage rose last week to 2,479 Bcf as of Friday, March 30, according to EIA’s WNGSR. An implied storage build of 42 Bcf for the week positioned storage volumes 845 Bcf above year-ago levels.

Working natural gas in storage increased to 2,479 Bcf as of Friday, March 30, according to EIA’s WNGSR. This represents a net injection of 42 Bcf from the previous week. The implied net injection is greater than both the five-year (2007-2011) average injection for the week of 8 Bcf and last year’s storage change, which was a net withdrawal of 29 Bcf. (Frosty temperatures at the end of March last year likely led to the net withdrawal.) Inventories increased this week in all three regions. The East posted an 11 Bcf injection; the West, 5 Bcf; and the Producing Region, 26 Bcf.

Stocks this week are currently 887 Bcf greater than their year-ago levels of 1,592 Bcf

Historic Chart

April Major Economic Events

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule:
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule:
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule:
• Heating Oil & Propane Update (October-March)
  Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price Data
  Release Schedule:
• Weekly Coal Production
  Release Schedule:
• Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
  Release Schedule:
• Coal News & Markets
  Release Schedule:
• Natural Gas Weekly Update
  Release Schedule:
• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  Release Schedule:

Originally posted here