By FXEmpire.com

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas literally ended at its exact starting point, the close on Monday was 1.74 and the close on Friday was 2.74.

Weather reports for the US showed milder temperatures and no major storm systems brewing, reducing the demand on gas. Injection reports showed a higher inventory then expected weighing on prices.

Traders are hoping for one last run of hot temperature before the close of summer.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 17, 2012

2.740

2.701

2.756

2.688

1.37%

Aug 16, 2012

2.703

2.757

2.805

2.688

-1.96%

Aug 15, 2012

2.756

2.827

2.829

2.740

-2.53%

Aug 14, 2012

2.828

2.748

2.846

2.729

2.91%

Aug 13, 2012

2.748

2.747

2.789

2.716

0.05%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of August 13-17, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug 14

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

2.6%

2.3%

2.4%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-25.5

-19.4

-19.6

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

0.4%

-0.8%

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

0.3%

-0.7%

Aug 15

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

-5.9K

6.2K

1.0K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

0-0-9

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

Aug 16

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

0.3%

0.0%

0.8%

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.81M

0.77M

0.76M

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

366K

365K

364K

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-4.7

-12.9

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.6

72.5

72.3

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.836 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

WEEKLY

  • Natural Gas Weekly Update
    Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug 21

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12.1B

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-6

Aug 22

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Aug 23

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.25B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.4

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

50.0

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.0

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

50.3

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

44.0

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

47.9

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

26.3K

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

11

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

366K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.4

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

350K

Aug 24

8:30

GBP

Revised GDP q/q

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Prelim Business Investment q/q

1.9%

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

-1.1%

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

1.6%

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-11.3

Click here a current Natural Gas Chart.

Originally posted here