For political and economic reasons the US government can’t allow the price of oil to go too high, at least for the time being. The price paused around top band of uptrend channel to wait for the official decision to open the strategic oil reserve tank.
With the summer driving season coming oil is unlikely to move under the 90 line. We expect the price to move in the 105 to 90 range to wait for the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to settle down.
But now outside countries are becoming involved there, which may result in an expanded war with unpredictable consequences.
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