OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was strong gains in the crude oil market–hitting a new all-time high of close to $76.00 a barrel–amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. dollar is near steady versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are lower in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher. Gold is trading slightly higher in early dealings.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, weekly USDA export sales for grains, DOE weekly gas storage data, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Stern speaks in Montana.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. Bears are gaining some fresh downside technical momentum, amid record-high oil prices and heightened tensions in the Middle East. But my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day today. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned lower. Short-term oscillators are bearish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,260.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,255.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is the overnight high of 1,269.70. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,275.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
1st Support:—— 1,260.65
2nd Support:—— 1,253.00
1st Resistance:— 1,279.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,291.40
September Nasdaq: Prices overnight dipped to another fresh contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 1,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,518.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1,547.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
1st Support:—— 1,503.50
2nd Support:—— 1,490.25
1st Resistance:— 1,538.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,560.25
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,050 and then just below support at of 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,140 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,208. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral to bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. But the 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
1st Support:—— 11,019
2nd Support:—— 10,956
1st Resistance:— 11,177
2nd Resistance:— 11,272
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. Technical odds are increasing that near-term lows are in place in bonds and notes. Also, the Middle East tensions will limit selling interest in the bonds today.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh four-week high in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish again today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 16/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid shorter-term technical resistance at 107 23/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 2/32
1st Support:—– 106 27/32
2nd Support:—– 106 14/32
1st Resistance:– 107 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 22/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 105.08.0, and then just above resistance at 105.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this week’s low of 104.22.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
1st Support:—— 104.28.0
2nd Support:—— 104.22.0
1st Resistance:— 105.20.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.30.0