New Price Highs in Nearly All Major Indexes

The following major indexes rose to new highs, thereby confirming their preexisting uptrends:

Dow Composite
Dow Industrial
Dow Transports
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq Composite
NYSE Composite
Russell 1000
Russell 2000
Russell 3000
S&P 100 Large Caps
S&P 400 Mid Caps
S&P 500
S&P 1500
Value Line Geometric
Wilshire 5000

Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE and Nasdaq both rose above their highs of recent months.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 19.1% Bears as of 1/12/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 3.00, which is more two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. High and rising bullish sentiment is normal, not a barrier to continuing gains, in a major bull market trend. The ratio was higher at this time last year, at 3.36 as of 1/13/10, and the S&P 500 index is 11.66% higher now than it was then. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.

CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
16.52% , ITT , ITT INDS
7.61% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
7.11% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
6.12% , NE , NOBLE
1.52% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
1.47% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
3.16% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
4.90% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
4.08% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.96% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.39% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
3.66% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
2.17% , CHD , Church & Dwight
14.98% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.39% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.64% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.06% , QLGC , QLOGIC
0.65% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
2.76% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.81% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.85% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
5.18% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.03% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
7.17% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.38% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.90% , VTI , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
4.06% , IMAX , Imax Corporation, IMAX
2.83% , C , CITIGROUP
1.62% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.04% , KEY , KEYCORP
2.69% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.08% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
2.01% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.44% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.41% , OMC , OMNICOM
-0.59% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-1.19% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.22% , EMC , EMC
-1.14% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-1.47% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.47% , CVS , CVS
-1.06% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.33% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.92% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.03% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.81% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.76% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.73% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.72% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.07% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-0.40% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.66% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.57% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.67% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.58% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.35% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.04% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.10% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.29% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-2.19% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.52% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.09% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.40% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.62% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.53% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-1.30% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 1/12/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, and remains bullish. Support 37.72 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 3-year highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 8-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 9-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.88, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/12/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 4-week lows on 1/7/11 and has been trending lower since 12/16/10. Support 28.93, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.58 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/12/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 1/10/11 and remains neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 6-month lows on 1/10/11. Based on 50- and 200-day SMAs, the ratio remains neutral at this time, although it is rapidly heading toward bearish territory.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/10/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend for the longer-term.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 3-year closing price highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish.

CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 6-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.25, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 92.57, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above 5-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 2-month lows on 1/6/11, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.

Silver nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term. Support 28.325, 28.01, and 24.98. Resistance: 31.275.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 5-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Copper rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) is in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 4 days 1/12/11, signaling a short-term downtrend. USD appears to have stalled out after meeting resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.635 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 79.025, 78.44, 78.01, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 19.1% Bears as of 1/12/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 3.00, which is more two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. High and rising bullish sentiment is normal, not a barrier to continuing gains, in a major bull market trend. The ratio was higher at this time last year, at 3.36 as of 1/13/10, and the S&P 500 index is 11.66% higher now than it was then. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.

VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/12/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,285.96) rose above the highs of the previous 2-years on 1/12/11, thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

7.61% Spain Index, EWP
5.18% Italy Index, EWI
3.93% EMU Europe Index, EZU
3.82% Indonesia MV, IDX
3.38% Russia MV, RSX
3.32% France Index, EWQ
3.20% Germany Index, EWG
2.95% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.93% European VIPERs, VGK
2.92% Belgium Index, EWK
2.74% Austria Index, EWO
2.65% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.39% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.28% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.22% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.20% EAFE Index, EFA
2.15% India PS, PIN
2.08% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.06% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.04% China 25 iS, FXI
2.03% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.02% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.01% South Korea Index, EWY
2.01% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.99% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.98% Global 100, IOO
1.98% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.97% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.96% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.96% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.94% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.93% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.88% Water Resources, PHO
1.86% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.84% Sweden Index, EWD
1.76% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.75% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.68% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.64% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.62% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.62% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.57% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.47% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.46% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.40% South Africa Index, EZA
1.37% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.30% Dividend International, PID
1.30% Singapore Index, EWS
1.26% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.26% Energy DJ, IYE
1.23% Australia Index, EWA
1.21% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.16% Energy Global, IXC
1.08% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.08% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.07% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.03% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.02% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.99% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.98% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.97% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.96% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.96% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.95% Japan Index, EWJ
0.94% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.92% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.92% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.91% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.91% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.91% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.91% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.91% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.90% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.90% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.89% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.89% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.88% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.88% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.87% Networking, IGN
0.87% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.86% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.85% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.85% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.83% Canada Index, EWC
0.83% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.83% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.82% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.81% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.81% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.80% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.79% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.78% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.78% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.78% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.78% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.75% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.73% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.71% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.70% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.70% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.70% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.68% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.66% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.66% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.64% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.63% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.57% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.55% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.53% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.52% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.48% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.48% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.45% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.45% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.42% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.41% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.40% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.37% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.28% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.24% Mexico Index, EWW
0.24% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.19% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.14% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.62% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.78% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT