The final revision is in, and the Commerce Department reported today that the U.S. economy officially grew at 5.6% pace in the fourth quarter of last year. However, as the Associated Press reports, many economists think that impressive growth will be cut in half this quarter.
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) isn’t so sure. He admits, “2010 looks a lot dicier than 2009.” However, his data shows the business cycle is currently healthy. “The growth rate after tailing off from record, record highs, is now stabilizing and inching up,” he says in the accompanying clip. In fact, the ECRI’s weekly leading index just hit a nine-week high.
And, as for a double-dip recession, Achuthan says it isn’t in the cards. “There’s no new recession anywhere in sight. In 2010, the business cycle remains your friend,” he says with confidence.
Even so, ECRI’s research does show a slowdown later in the year. The ECRI does have a good track record when it comes to predicting economic cycles. They correctly predicted last year’s strong recovery after having correctly called the 2001 and 1990 recessions. However, ECRI waited until March 2008 to officially diagnose the last recession that they now agree began in December of 2007. Peter Gorenstein
