“Everywhere we look we find behavior that cannot go on for long. Everywhere people are living as though there is no tomorrow.” — German Chancellor Angela Merkel, November 14, 2011
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA again, turning technically bullish.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) closed above the closes of the previous 2 trading days and whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA again, turning technically bullish.
Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below its falling 50-day SMA and remains clearly bearish. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/30/2010, suggesting a persistent Bear trend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) appears overbought for the short-term. Moreover, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, implying a neutral medium-term trend.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA, turning bearish again.
Trading volume on the NYSE has fallen for 3 consecutive trading days to a low level. This may reflect apathy in reaction to news of progress on the European financial crisis.
The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating after its May-October downtrend. That is normal, since markets don’t move in straight lines. There is a better than even chance that the downtrend may resume soon.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,251.78) fell 12.70 points or 0.95% on Monday, November 14, 2011.
Over the past 3 weeks, SPX appears to have played with and stalled out near (that is, modestly above and below, not to be interpreted as a precise point) its widely-followed, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is now at 1272.10. This appears to be Resistance.
The high price volatility of recent months is typical of bear markets. In contrast, bull markets are much less volatile.
Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.
Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
There is a strategy that gained over the past 5 months, while most other strategies lost —
NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
The Colby Global Markets Report
(click here for a no-risk free trial)
Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,251.78) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1272.10, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,251.78) Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) closed above the closes of the previous 2 trading days and whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.49 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) > closed above the closes of the previous 2 trading days and whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 104.90 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11, turning technically neutral again. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains technically neutral between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Since making a low on 9/30/11, TIP/IEF has recovered less than half of larger losses since 4/8/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.01, 22.32, and 22.63.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/14/11–this following a break below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11. DBA remains below 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. DBA remains bearish in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) appears overbought for the short-term. Moreover, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.47, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) consolidated gains after breaking out above 6-week highs on 11/8/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 168.83, 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11, turning bearish again. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) shows little price momentum over the past 2 weeks, so let’s call it neutral. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11, fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11, and remains bearishly below both SMAs. Support 32.23, 31.50, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 11/9/11, which might be bearish for the short term. Medium term, SLV/GLD has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 13 trading days on 11/10/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.61% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
7.27% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.96% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
2.08% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.97% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
3.01% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.01% , ETN , EATON
1.52% , BA , BOEING
2.96% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
0.96% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.63% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.19% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.09% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.61% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
0.85% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
0.88% , SUN , SUNOCO
0.71% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.80% , TIF , TIFFANY
0.50% , HD , HOME DEPOT
0.80% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.38% , CLX , CLOROX
1.69% , LOW , LOWES
0.28% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.27% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.23% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.49% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.12% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.04% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.16% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
0.30% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.10% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.29% , PLL , PALL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.65% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.20% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-1.86% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-0.98% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.73% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.18% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.93% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.36% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.30% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-0.94% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.92% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.49% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-3.71% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-2.04% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.92% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.19% , PCAR , PACCAR
-0.82% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-1.01% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-1.63% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-2.81% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.57% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.68% , MAS , MASCO
-0.95% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-3.11% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.49% , MOLX , MOLEX
-1.60% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-2.37% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-0.87% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.67% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.12% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.73% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-2.12% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-0.85% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.61% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.30% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.63% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.24% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.27% Networking, IGN
-0.43% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.44% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.45% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.45% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.47% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.49% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.52% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.53% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.54% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.62% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.62% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.62% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.63% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.67% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.67% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.67% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.67% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.68% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.70% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.73% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.73% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.73% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.73% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.73% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.76% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.80% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.80% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.83% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.85% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.85% Russia MV, RSX
-0.86% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.86% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.86% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.87% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.88% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.89% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.91% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.92% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.92% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.94% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.95% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.95% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.96% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.98% Energy Global, IXC
-0.99% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.00% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.00% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.01% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.02% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.05% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.06% Dividend International, PID
-1.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.08% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.08% Canada Index, EWC
-1.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.09% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.11% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.12% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.12% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.13% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.14% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.17% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.17% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.17% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.18% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.18% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.18% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.19% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.19% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.19% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.20% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.21% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.22% Water Resources, PHO
-1.24% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.26% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.30% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.31% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.31% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.33% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.36% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.42% Global 100, IOO
-1.43% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.43% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.44% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.55% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.55% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.55% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.57% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.62% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.63% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.65% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.65% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.67% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.78% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.84% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.85% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.93% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.96% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.99% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.01% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.04% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.09% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.09% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.11% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.12% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.18% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.34% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.35% Australia Index, EWA
-2.44% Austria Index, EWO
-2.54% France Index, EWQ
-2.72% Germany Index, EWG
-2.73% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.79% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.82% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.92% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.04% India PS, PIN
-3.10% Sweden Index, EWD
-3.40% Italy Index, EWI
-3.59% Spain Index, EWP
