* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

News that North Korea detonated another nuclear bomb underground, in defiance of United Nations sanctions, had little impact on the market place overnight. However, North Korea’s rogue status on the world stage could quickly flare up into an international incident, which would prompt investor demand for perceived safe-haven assets like gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Moody’s ratings agency on Tuesday lowered its economic growth expectations for the eight major economies of the world. Moody’s said the growth rate of the group would be a collective 1.4% in 2013. That’s down 0.2% from Moody’s forecast for the same group in November. That news helped put some downside price pressure on the European stock markets overnight. The Lunar New Year celebration is occurring this week in Asia. China is on holiday all week for the celebration. That is slightly bearish for the gold market as it is limiting physical buying interest from the Chinese this week. The Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow on Friday and Saturday. A main topic will likely be currency values as many industrialized nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their economic growth. The Group of Seven nations on Tuesday issued a statement that said their central banks were not attempting to devalue their currencies, but instead trying to boost their economic growth rates. The G-7 nations also said they will not target specific currency exchange rates. The statement was meant to head off growing concerns that “currency wars” could break out if there is not some form of agreement reached soon by the major nations, regarding currency exchange rates. At present, Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen continues to plummet in value. The fact that the G-7 is attempting to “jawbone” the matter before the G-20 meeting even begins is an indicator the situation is considered serious by the G-7 countries. If the major countries cannot come to meaningful agreement on the matter and continue to work to devalue their currencies, that could become a major bullish force for the gold market. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports. President Obama delivers his State of the Union speech Tuesday evening.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady and hovering near a four-month high early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have recently seen a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,779.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,763.00 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 13,895 and then at 13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 13,970 and then at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as risk appetite in the market place has been on the upswing for several weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 143 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 144 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143 13/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 131.25.0 and then at last week’s high of 131.29.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.16.5 and then at 131.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today but did hit another fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls are gaining some upside momentum but the greenback bears still hold the overall near-term technical adavantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at the January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.23 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have early this week regained some upside near-term technical momentum.In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $98.00 and then at the January high of $98.24. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.68 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Corn and wheat were weaker and soybeans firmer. Grain market bulls have faded recently as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon appears to be at hand. There may be some near-term selling pressure in the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish the grains. Thus, present price weakness in the grains could be seen as value-buying opportunities looking at what prices could be fetching in the coming months.