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Daily State of the Markets |
After a couple weeks of selling and a lot of hullabaloo about the economic recovery being dead on arrival, the bulls announced yesterday that they, like the recovery, aren’t quite dead yet. And while the slightly better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite got most of the credit in the popular press for the triple digit dance higher, we’re of the mind that it was more the realization that a handful of disappointing economic reports does not a double-dip make.
While the recovery theme did lose a fair amount of momentum last week, the economic calendar provided a nice tailwind for stocks to start out the new week. The star of the day was the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which rose 2.5 points in September to 50.9. This was the first reading above 50 since August 2008, which is indicative of growth in the services sector. While we don’t want to bore you with too many details, it is worth noting that New Orders rose 4.3 points to 54.2, while the business index increased 3.8 points to 55.1, and both were the highest levels since October 2007.
The bulls also got a hand from some renewed talk about M&A activity. We learned that Brocade (BRCD) will put itself up for sale and that both Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Oracle (ORCL) are looking for acquisitions. In addition, there was talk about Emulex (ELX) and NetApp (NTAP) being acquired. And finally, Cisco (CSCO) CEO John Chambers said he sees acquisitions “heating up.” So, while M&A talk doesn’t produce higher prices for the market all by itself, it also doesn’t hurt. Let the games begin.
Speaking of things that don’t hurt the bulls, an upbeat call on the banks out of Goldman Sachs (GS) bolstered the banking indices yesterday. Goldman argued that the market has yet to recognize the “meaningful improvement in earnings power” at the large banks and that tangible assets have increased by almost 30%. But to be clear, they do favor the big banks over the regionals.
So, with the bulls on the ropes and Art Cashin suggesting that this thing could “crack wide open” to the downside, the bulls have to be feeling a little better after putting some space between them and the key support levels. While a bounce to the upside was certainly logical after the recent decline, we should keep in mind that the volume yesterday was uninspiring and there is resistance overhead to deal with. But for now it looks like the bulls are at least putting up a nice fight.
Turning to this morning, we don’t have any economic data on the calendar today, before the bell or otherwise. However, we will get the results from the Treasury’s auction this afternoon at 1:00 pm.
On the news front, it is worth noting that there is a lot of chatter this morning – all of which has been denied – about France, China, and Russia moving to stop using the U.S. dollar in oil transactions. Also, Australia raised their interest rates by 0.25% in response to the global economy resuming growth.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are higher across the board. Crude futures are moving up with the latest quote showing oil trading higher by $1.12 to $71.53. On the interest rate front, we’ve got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.25%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.07%. And finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a higher open. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 70 points; the S&P’s are up about 8 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 11 points above fair value at the moment.
Upgrades/Downgrades/Brokerage Research:
America Movil (AMX) – Upgraded at BofA/Merrill, Citi Repsol (REP) – Downgraded at Citi Devon Energy (DVN) – Downgraded at Credit Suisse Newfield Exploration (NFX) – Upgraded at Credit Suisse PepsiCo (PEP) – Removed from Focus List at Credit Suisse Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – Upgraded at Credit Suisse TJX Companies (TJX) – Added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman Int’l Game Technology (IGT) – Removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman Pactiv Corp (PTV) – Upgraded at Goldman General Mills (GIS) – Upgraded at Morgan Stanley Hartford Financial (HIG) – Upgraded at UBS AFLAC (AFL) – Upgraded at UBS National Financial Partners (NFP) – Downgraded at UBS Corning (GLW) – Upgraded at UBS Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) – Downgraded at UBS
Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, TJX
Try smiling at everyone you meet today and until next time, “may the bulls be with you!”
David D. Moenning
Founder TopStockPortfolios.com
For more “top stock” portfolios and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
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