By Scott Redler
…will Santa get a DWI?
As Santa swooped in, he took all the indices to new highs, with Tech leading the way. We saw some major moves in those “mark up stocks”–i.e. AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, etc. The S&P closed above the important 1,119-1,121 level and now has room to run up to 1,127 and then 1,132-1,135. THE NEXT MAJOR LEVEL IN THE S&p is 1,140-1,144–that should cap any additional gains going into the New Year’s bell.
The bottom line is??? THEY SAY YOU CAN’T TIME THE MARKET!!!
Check out these three stats (these stats are all basically plus or minus a percentage point):
- The Dow is up about 10% for the year–but down 10% for the decade.
- The S&P is up about 25% on the year–but down 25% for the decade.
- The NASDAQ is up 44% on the year–but down 44% for the decade.
These stats tell me you HAVE to time the market–but you don’t have to be a daytrader. If you are in the stock market, you must not let someone else “handle” all of your affairs. There are way too many resources at your finger tips to empower yourself.
- At this point it gets tricky: if you missed your entries, it’s hard to chase strong stocks and just as hard to short extended stocks (like me in SNDK).
- AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all had very nice moves from their proper buy prices–and now all are extended. That does not mean they cannot continue higher!
- Gold–we are now in Tier 2 macro long. I sent out two action alerts last week. Our average cost is at about $107.50 and I will look to take half of the trade off at around $110 to take some of the trade and leave some room for our core tier to run.
- Oil had a nice bounce and is now extended.
- Casinos are at a bit of a crossroads–LVS and MGM are in tight ranges–above $15.75 LVS can break to the upside, below $15 there’s some trouble. MGM has the same type of chart–$9.75ish would be our buy price, with trouble looming below $9.
- Some exchanges look decent for a trade: NYX above $26 could get a move to the $29 area; ICE above $110.55 could take us to $115.
- Financials continue to lag. GS needs to break above $166 with big time volume to get going, otherwise it’s an avoid.
***AIG WILL BE MY ON THE RADAR- IF IT GETS ABOVE 31.50 ON HEAVY VOLUME – this stock can be back in play on a shortened week with a trade up to the $35-37 area, or more.
