NYSE volume rises to confirm stock price weakness.

All 9 major stock sector ETFs are now below their 50-day SMAs.

VIX volatility rose to its highest level since 6/24/13.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,655.45, down 1.23%) absolute price opened flat on Tuesday but turned down after the first hour. SPX remained under persistent selling pressure nearly all day. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, at its lowest level of the day, below its lowest lows in more than 4 weeks, and further below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.

SPX remains systematically neutral, strictly speaking, below the 50-day SMA but still above the 200-day SMA and with the 50 above the 200. Momentum divergences, lagging volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and politics remain major obstacles to a sustainable upside trend. Subjectively, the SPX trend still looks uncertain for the short-term, day-to-day trend. The SPX trend looks neutral for the medium term, since its May high.

NYSE total volume rose 32% to a level 3% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both fell steeply on Tuesday. The Advance-Decline Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), and now has fallen back down to its August low.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The day-to-day Minor Ripple trend has turned corrective since.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral on 8/26/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA price has been in a cyclical bear market since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. In addition, DBA has been in a secular bear market since peaking at 43.50 on 2/27/2008.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 10/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.16% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.90% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
3.76% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
2.77% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.73% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.51% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.54% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.97% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.36% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.30% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
1.03% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.28% , SO , SOUTHERN
0.78% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.84% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.15% , ED , CON ED
0.60% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.21% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.56% , CVS , CVS
1.43% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.90% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
0.49% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.30% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
0.84% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.76% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.34% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.24% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.70% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.62% , KO , COCA COLA
0.19% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
0.23% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.13% , K , KELLOGG
0.13% , BMS , BEMIS
0.10% , SYK , STRYKER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.01% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-5.27% , MAS , MASCO
-1.32% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-3.92% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.34% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.08% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-3.54% , YHOO , YAHOO
-5.58% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-3.51% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-5.59% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.40% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.16% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.03% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-1.49% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.50% , XRX , XEROX
-2.78% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-4.98% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.98% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-3.62% , BBY , BEST BUY
-4.73% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-2.13% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-3.63% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.59% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.89% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.34% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-2.17% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-3.63% , AN , AUTONATION
-4.69% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.24% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.62% , TLAB , TELLABS
-4.15% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.45% , MBI , MBIA
-2.34% , PIN , India PS, PIN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.21% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.70% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.57% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.46% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.35% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.30% , Russia MV, RSX
0.29% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.04% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.15% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.19% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.19% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.19% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.23% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.23% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.26% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.27% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.29% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.32% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.35% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.42% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.46% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.47% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.52% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.59% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.64% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.64% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.64% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.65% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.69% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.74% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.76% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.78% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.81% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.82% , France Index, EWQ
-0.85% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.88% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.90% , Global 100, IOO
-0.92% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.93% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.95% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.95% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.95% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.95% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.96% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.96% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.96% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.99% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.99% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.00% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.00% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.00% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.01% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.04% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.04% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.04% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.05% , Dividend International, PID
-1.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.06% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.07% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.07% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.09% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.09% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.10% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.12% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.12% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.13% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.14% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.16% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.17% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.20% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.20% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.22% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.24% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.26% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.26% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.26% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.27% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.28% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.28% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.31% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.33% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.34% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.38% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.38% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.39% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.40% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.40% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.44% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.44% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.46% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.48% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.48% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.49% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.50% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.51% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.54% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.55% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.57% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.58% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.59% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.59% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.59% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.62% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.66% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.66% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.71% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.74% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.77% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.79% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.89% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.93% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.97% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.99% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.05% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.06% , Networking, IGN
-2.06% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.07% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.13% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.13% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.16% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.31% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.34% , India PS, PIN
-2.68% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-5.15% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-5.59% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1678.94, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1598.28, 200-day SMA
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009