NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD Employment Change 10.9K -29.3K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.2%
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
23:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of the Asian session )
NZD/USD eased to 82.80 US cents, from 82.96 cents on Tuesday.
The New Zealand dollar slipped against the greenback as further delays in Greece’s bailout package and credit rating downgrades of nine European nations sapped risk sentiment.
Investors flocked to safe-haven currencies such as the greenback and the yen late on Tuesday after rating agency Moody Investors Service cut the sovereign credit ratings on Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
It put Austria, France and the UK on notice. Sentiment was further dented after a European Union finance ministers’ meeting on the Greek package was delayed.
Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-16% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.1% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-8.1 |
-21.1 |
-32.5 |
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
BRL |
Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.7% |
7.6% |
6.7% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
