NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 27, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT + 10:00)
Feb 26 GMT
21:45 NZD Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
23:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of the Asian session )
NZD/USD is trading at 0.8380. The New Zealand dollar rose against the greenback as US jobless claims and housing data beat estimates, stoking optimism for global growth and demand for high-yielding currencies.
The New Zealand dollar rose as high as 83.92 The New Zealand dollar will continue to trade between 80 and 85 cents ahead of the European Central Bank’s second tranche of three-year loans next week and as investors continue to mull the details of a second bail-out package for Greece. The New Zealand dollar is washing around a bit – but it is not the start of a downward trend. There is just a bit of pressure on the crosses.
US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.
February 23, 2012 (GMT) economic results actual v. forecast
|
TWD |
Taiwanese Industrial Production (YoY) |
-16.5% |
-6.3% |
-8.1% |
|
HKD |
Hong Kong Trade Balance |
-8.9B |
-25.0B |
-48.9B |
|
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
109.6 |
108.8 |
108.3 |
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
117.5 |
116.5 |
116.3 |
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
102.3 |
102.0 |
100.9 |
|
EUR |
Italian Consumer Confidence |
94.2 |
90.0 |
91.8 |
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
38.1K |
37.3K |
36.6K |
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-3 |
-13 |
-16 |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
351K |
354K |
351K |
| Corporate Profits (QoQ) |
9.0% |
-0.5% |
||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3392K |
3460K |
3444K |
|
USD |
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence |
-38.4 |
-39.8 |
|
|
USD |
House Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
USD |
Mass Layoffs |
1.43K |
1.38K |
|
|
CAD |
BoC Review | |||
|
USD |
Natural Gas Storage |
-166B |
-146B |
-127B |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
1.6M |
1.0M |
-0.2M |
|
USD |
Gasoline Inventories |
-0.6M |
-0.3M |
0.4M |
|
CAD |
BoC Gov Carney Speaks | |||
|
VEF |
Venezuelan Industrial Production (YoY) |
4.8% |
4.7% |
5.7% |
|
VEF |
Venezuelan Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.4% |
13.3% |
11.0% |
|
KRW |
South Korean Consumer Confidence |
100 |
97 |
98 |
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks | |||
|
JPY |
CSPI (YoY) |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
Originally posted here
