By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)
The NZD/USD continues to decline trading at 0.7945. The kiwi drifted lower on Friday as investors already worried about debt in Europe digested weak Chinese manufacturing reports, and weaker prices for locally-produced raw materials.
The kiwi slipped to 75.08 US cents at 5pm from 75.24 cents at 8am and 75.36 cents. The trade-weighted index declined to 68.91 from 69.06.
The decline came as the ANZ Commodity Price Index tumbled to a 21-month low in May. ANZ said the decline in the kiwi dollar in May outpaced the fall in commodity prices. Merchandise terms of trade data released on Friday also showed a 2.3 per cent decline in the terms of trade in the March 2012 quarter from the previous quarter. This means less imported goods could be funded by a fixed quantity of exported goods.
But dealers said the focus of the day was on two versions of manufacturing data in China.
China’s manufacturing has weakened, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to prevent economic growth from slowing too quickly.
The European debt crisis is pinching China’s export manufacturers, while moves to control property prices have chilled spending on construction, analysts said on Friday after the release of the data.
Some said the data suggested China’s economic growth would fall below eight per cent in the second quarter. That’s still high by Western standards but a weak performance for China compared with years of double-digit growth and might reduce its appetite for imports from countries that have become increasingly reliant on Chinese demand.
The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its purchasing managers index, or PMI, fell 2.9 percentage points to 50.4 per cent in May, just above the 50 level that signifies expansion. The index was at 53.3 in April and 53.1 in March.
HSBC’s index, which is adjusted for seasonal conditions and is more weighted toward export manufacturers, fell to 48.4 in May from 49.3 in April. The index has remained below 50 since October.
Factory output was the weakest in three months and the reduction in jobs was the sharpest in more than three years, HSBC said. New orders for both domestic and export business fell due to ‘muted global demand.’
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 31- June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
-5K |
18K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
133K |
148K |
113K |
|
|
13:30 |
Current Account |
-10.3B |
-11.0B |
-9.7B |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
383K |
370K |
373K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3242K |
3250K |
3278K |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
56.5 |
56.2 |
|
|
Jun. 01 |
00:00 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
00:50 |
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|
|
02:00 |
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
52.20 |
53.30 |
|
|
03:30 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
48.40 |
48.70 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 4 |
1:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-3.1% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Company Operating Profits q/q |
-6.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
-1.5% |
|
|
23:30 |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
39.6 |
|
|
Jun 5 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Current Account |
-8.4B |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.75% |
3.75% |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
1:30 |
AUD |
GDP q/q |
0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
Jun 7 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
4.9% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
15.5K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.79T |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Final GDP q/q |
1.0% |
|
|
Jun 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 31 14:30 Sweden
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 09:30
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here for further NZD/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
