NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 2, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Economic Events: (GMT)

The economic calendar is very light for Friday, with the end the 1^st falling on Thursday. These events will have no little or significant events in the market. There are also no events scheduled in the US.

00:00	NZD	ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)	1.2%
14:00	USD	Global Semiconductor Sales (MoM)	-5.5%

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

NZD/USD is trading at up 0.8346 from the opening of 0.8342 climbing back after the kiwi fell almost one US cent following bearish marks on the US economy from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and after the European Central Bank loaned a record amount of cash to euro-area banks. Today strong eco-data helped the NZD move against the USD

Mr Bernanke said in Washington that US employment “remains far from normal” and stronger growth would be needed to bring down the jobless rate – comments that tempered market enthusiasm over recent strong US economic data.

In Europe, the ECB lent a record 529.5 billion euro of three-year loans to 800 financial institutions, up from 523 at the first round of lending in December. Investors are wary banks will become too reliant on ECB funds and fail to take the steps to strengthen their balance sheets.

New Zealand business confidence gathered momentum at the start of the year, with a pick-up in the construction sector leading the way, according to the National Bank’s Business Outlook survey.

A net 28 per cent of survey respondents expect better times for the economy in the year ahead, up 11 points from the last survey in December, while a net 31 per cent of firms predict their own activity will improve, up 5 points.

China’s manufacturing gained momentum; helped by strength in new orders, export demand and production, though inflation pressures remain a concern, according to a survey released on Thursday.

The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose 0.5 points to 51.0 from January’s 50.5 and December’s figure of 50.3 in a third straight month of steady improvement.

February 29^th and March 1, 2012 Economic Data forecast v. actual (bold March 1st)

AUD		HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-7.3%				-4.9%
AUD		Construction Work Done (QoQ)	-4.6%				-0.6%		11.7%
AUD		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%				0.3%		-0.1%
USD		GDP Price Index (QoQ)	0.9%				0.4%		0.4%
USD		GDP (QoQ)	3.0%				2.8%		2.8%
USD		Chicago PMI	64.0				61.8		60.2
JPY		Capital Spending	7.60%				-6.50%		-9.80%
AUD		Building Approvals (MoM)				0.9%	2.1%			-1.0%
AUD		Private New Capital Expenditure				-0.3%	3.9%			14.6%

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction

Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction

Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Originally posted here