By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD closed the week off from its beginning, even though it was a positive week, the kiwi had to deal with the fluctuation of the USD and then weight of negative Chinese eco data. It was unemployment and jobs that sunk the currency. In this small country dependent on exports to its neighbors, the toll of shrinking economies is causing the unemployment in New Zealand to skyrocket.
The pair are trading at a very high level safely above the 80 range, closing the week at 0.8132 as the kiwi recovers from the midweek reports.
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
Aug 10, 2012 |
0.8132 |
0.8118 |
0.8141 |
0.8084 |
0.17% |
Aug 09, 2012 |
0.8118 |
0.8118 |
0.8152 |
0.8099 |
0.00% |
Aug 08, 2012 |
0.8118 |
0.8148 |
0.8164 |
0.8112 |
-0.37% |
Aug 07, 2012 |
0.8148 |
0.8196 |
0.8220 |
0.8147 |
-0.59% |
Aug 06, 2012 |
0.8196 |
0.8179 |
0.8223 |
0.8163 |
0.21% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Aug 6 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-0.8% |
-1.1% |
|
NZD |
Labor Cost Index q/q |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 7 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.77T |
0.75T |
0.28T |
|
Aug 8 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
1.3% |
2.1% |
-0.9% |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
NZD |
Employment Change q/q |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.5% |
6.7% |
|
JPY |
Core Machinery Orders m/m |
5.6% |
11.1% |
-14.8% |
|
Aug 9 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
14.0K |
10.2K |
-28.3K |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
|
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
|
|
|
|
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
||
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Aug 13 |
13th-14th |
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
0.3% |
22:45 |
NZD |
Core Retail Sales q/q |
-2.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||
23:50 |
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m |
0.7% |
|
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
1:30 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
3.7% |
1:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index q/q |
0.9% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
|
13:15 |
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
3.3% |
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input q/q |
0.3% |
|
Aug 17 |
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
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