By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
See details of all economic events in the daily forecasts.
AUD-NZD Calendar
Jan. 30 21:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) 8.0% -6.4%
Jan. 31 00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
Feb. 01 00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 6.8%
00:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) -0.60% -1.20%
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
Feb. 02 00:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) 2.1% 8.4%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance 1.20B 1.38B
USD Calendar
Jan. 30 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.3%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 63.0 62.5
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.2 64.5
Feb. 01 13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 190K 325K
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index 54.5 53.9
Feb. 02 13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 1.0% 2.3%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 373K 377K
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 0.9% -2.5%
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3565K 3554K
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Feb. 03 00:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls 150K 200K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.5%
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls 170K 212K
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 53.2 52.6
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Rule:
NZD/USD: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictablilty.
NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30- Feb. 3, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:
NZD/USD is trading at 0.8247 +0.0031 (+0.38%)
The U.S. dollar fell against all currency partners this week on the FOMC statements and weak economic data. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said the economy could withstand shocks from abroad, which fueled demand both internally and externally for the country’s dollar.
New Zealand’s economy is “going OK, and certainly some of the individual sectors of the country are doing quite well. Concluded the comments.
We should start to see offshore demand for kiwi dollars.
The Good:
US Durable Goods orders in Dec surprise to upside but how much was pulled forward from 2012 due to 12/31 expiration of full depreciation expensing?
Jan US confidence rises to best since Feb ’11
Richmond and KC manufacturing survey’s both rise
The Bad:
Q4 US GDP rises 2.8%, a touch below expectations but nominal GDP gains just 3.2%, the weakest since Q3 ’09. If deflator was in line with expectations, Real GDP would have been up just 1.3%. Real final sales up just .8% vs. 3.2% in Q3
Initial Jobless Claims normalize at 377k after holiday distorted 356k last week
Inflation expectations within UoM rise to 3.3%, the most since Sept and remains above the 20 yr avg of 3.0%. Expectations also rise to multi month highs in TIPS market
New Home Sales remain weak, prices fall 12.8% y/o/y
FOMC stretches out zero rates until late 2014, US$ resumes downward trend against everything. Fed destroying the price mechanism as if interest rates are artificially priced, what are assets really worth? If we don’t know what assets are really worth, how can capital be efficiently allocated?
There are significant reports due out this coming week, in Australia, New Zealand, and the US. We should see the USD pick up some of its strenght this week as the Fed statement becomes the past.
Upcoming Sovereign Bond Sales Dates
Jan 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Jan 30 10:10 Norway Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond
Jan 30 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction
Jan 30 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 06
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029 I/L Gil
Originally posted here
