By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD was able to capitalize on the weakness in the USD to gain momentum to trade at 0.8094 coming close to a multi month high.
Although negative eco data from China continues to weigh on the kiwi, especially after an announcement that China may see growth dip to 7.4% this year.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jul 27, 2012 |
0.8094 |
0.7999 |
0.8106 |
0.7992 |
1.17% |
|
Jul 26, 2012 |
0.8000 |
0.7897 |
0.8030 |
0.7893 |
1.30% |
|
Jul 25, 2012 |
0.7897 |
0.7822 |
0.7917 |
0.7809 |
0.96% |
|
Jul 24, 2012 |
0.7822 |
0.7892 |
0.7923 |
0.7820 |
-0.89% |
|
Jul 23, 2012 |
0.7892 |
0.7964 |
0.7968 |
0.7867 |
-0.90% |
We’ll get a better look at how the Chinese and Japanese economies are performing via a bevy of sentiment surveys as China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its July PMI on Tuesday night, and markets will be watching for the degree of disjunction between the official number, which came in at 50.2 in June, and the private sector PMI, which was in sub-50 contraction territory and remained there on its July flash reading (albeit at a marginally higher level than in June – we’ll get a second look at the July private sector PMI on Tuesday as well). Taiwan GDP on Monday night. Japan will release industrial production numbers on Sunday, and its data dump will continue with jobs and household spending released on Monday night and housing starts numbers on Tuesday night. The domestic economy will be front and center in Australia with new home sales (Monday), trade, and retail sales numbers (Wednesday) due out over the course of the week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 23-27 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 23 |
AUD |
PPI q/q |
0.5% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
Jul 24 |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.5 |
|
NZD |
Trade Balance |
331M |
77M |
232M |
|
|
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.30T |
-0.39T |
-0.62T |
|
|
Jul 25 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index m/m |
0.4% |
-1.3% |
|
|
AUD |
CPI q/q |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
350K |
372K |
382K |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
-0.1M |
-0.8M |
|
|
NZD |
Official Cash Rate |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
Jul 26 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
381K |
388K |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-1.4% |
0.6% |
5.4% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
0.2% |
1.2% |
3.6% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
23:30 |
JPY |
Household Spending y/y |
4.0% |
|
Jul 31 |
1:00 |
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
12.6 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
27.3% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit m/m |
0.5% |
|
|
1:30 |
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
-1.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Employment Cost Index q/q |
0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.0% |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-1.9% |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.9 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
62.0 |
|
|
Aug 1 |
1:30 |
AUD |
HPI q/q |
-1.1% |
|
12:15 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
176K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.7 |
|
|
18:15 |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
||
|
Aug 2 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.5% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.29B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.7% |
|
|
23:30 |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
48.8 |
|
|
Aug 3 |
12:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
80K |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
Click here for updated NZD/USD News.
Originally posted here
