By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD continues to decline trading at .7829. The kiwi has had a difficult time against the USD this week. The negative data out of China kept the NZD weakened and the risk aversion safe haven movement kept the USD strong. The pair fell throughout the week. There was little in the way of supportive eco data, except a consumer sentiment report which pushed the dollar up a bit on Friday. The pair were at the weakness of the euro and the global move to the USD as politics and finances in Europe continue to worry traders.
This week too has little in the way of eco data for the kiwi island, but the USD will most likely lose some momentum giving some advantage to the kiwi.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.
This week’s eco data actual v. forecast. This week it is important to look at all these major events and the compare the results. There were many major releases that affected the global markets not just local and regional.
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
7.4% |
3.1% |
-8.8% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
2.2% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
4.7% |
-1.5% |
7.6% |
|
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-19% |
-10% |
-10% |
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
-1.40B |
-0.75B |
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.8% |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
|
CAD |
Housing Starts |
244.9K |
204.0K |
214.8K |
|
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account |
0.79T |
0.65T |
0.86T |
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
15.5K |
-5.5K |
44.0K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.40B |
8.50B |
5.35B |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
|
GBP |
Mfg Production (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-2.6% |
-2.6% |
-2.3% |
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
325B |
325B |
325B |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
|
CAD |
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
1.0B |
0.3B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
-50.0B |
-45.4B |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
369K |
368K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3229K |
3278K |
3290K |
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
59.1B |
30.0B |
-198.2B |
|
GBP |
Nat’l Consumer Confidence |
44 |
52 |
53 |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Invest |
20.2% |
20.5% |
20.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.3% |
12.0% |
11.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
14.1% |
15.2% |
15.2% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-1.5% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.2% |
1.9% |
5.6% |
|
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
0.30% |
1.20% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
58.2K |
7.0K |
82.3K |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
77.8 |
76.2 |
76.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY, CNY and USD
|
May 14 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-2.5% |
|
|
May 16 |
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
-1.60% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
1.0% |
||
|
23:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
||
|
May 17 |
00:50 |
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
05:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Originally posted here
