By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD saw huge swings throughout the week as detailed in the chart blow. The pair closed the week at 0.7560. The kiwi is under pressure as markets continue to worry about the slowdown from China and the small economy of New Zealand is very dependent on trade with its neighbors. This was also compounded by some surprising eco data, as retail sales fell below expectations. The overall market attitude this week was to shed all European equities and thus created huge strength for the USD, which mounting unrivalled pressure on the kiwi. Once this risk aversion attitude reduces it is expected that the kiwi and its cousins will return to prior positions.
The kiwi lost almost 3% of its value this week
Major Economic Events for the week of May 14-18 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi
|
NZD |
Retail Sales (QoQ) |
-1.5% |
-0.5% |
1.8% |
|
NZD |
Core Retail Sales (QoQ) |
-2.5% |
0.3% |
2.3% |
|
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
0.3% |
-2.0% |
-2.5% |
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
0.80% |
-1.60% |
|
|
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
0.9% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
NZD |
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
|
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.0% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
JPY |
GDP Price Index (YoY) |
-1.2% |
-1.4% |
-1.8% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD,JPY,NZD and USD
|
May 22 |
3:00 |
NZD |
Inflation Expectations q/q |
2.5% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.48M |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.62T |
|
|
May 23 |
0:00 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index m/m |
0.0% |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
TBD |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement |
||
|
TBD |
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
|
|
|
TBD |
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
328K |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
134M |
|
|
May 24 |
2:00 |
NZD |
Annual Budget Release |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
BOJ Monthly Report |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-0.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-4.0% |
|
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.5% |
|
|
May 25 |
TBD |
ALL |
G8 Meetings |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 09:10 Norway
May 21 09:30 Germany
May 21 10:00 Belgium
May 22 08:30 Holland
May 22 08:30 Spain
May 22 17:00 US
May 23 09:10 Sweden
May 23 09:30 Germany
May 23 14:30 Sweden
May 23 17:00 US
May 24 15:30 Italy
May 24 17:00 US
May 25 15:30 Italy
Originally posted here
