By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD collapses at the end of the week to trade at 0.7955
The Kiwi tumbled most of the week at the recent unemployment report showed a huge increase in unemployment catching the markets by surprise. This was compounded by negatives from all of New Zealand’s trading partners including Australia, China, and Japan.
The Governor of the RNZ blamed the euro crisis and an overpriced NZ dollar.
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.75% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
54.8 |
53.0 |
53.4 |
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
119K |
177K |
201K |
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.3% |
6.4% |
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
380K |
392K |
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
115K |
170K |
154K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
Ivey PMI |
52.7 |
61.0 |
63.5 |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD,JPY,NZD and USD
|
May 7 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
-7.8% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
May 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.48B |
|
9:30 |
AUD |
Annual Budget Release |
||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
RBNZ Financial Stability Report |
||
|
May 9 |
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.85T |
|
May 10 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
|
TBD |
CNY |
Trade Balance |
5.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-46.0B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
|
|
May 11 |
1:30 |
CNY |
CPI y/y |
3.6% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.0% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
76.4 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 08 09:15 Austria
May 08 09:30 Belgium
May 08 14:30 UK
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 09 09:10 Sweden
May 09 09:30 Germany
May 09 09:30 Swiss
May 09 09:30 UK
May 09 14:30 Sweden
May 09 15:30 Italy
May 09 17:00 US
May 10 15:00 US
May 10 17:00 US
May 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
May 11 10:00 Belgium
Originally posted here
