Initial Claims increased by 17,000 to 551,000 claims for the week ending 09/26, worse than the expected decrease to 524,000 filings from 534,000 claims the previous week, revised upward from an originally reported 530,000. The 4-week moving average was 548,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s moving average. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the past week ending on 09/19 was 6,090,000, a decrease of 70,000 from the preceding week’s revised level, maintaining the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 4.6%. This data comes before tomorrow’s Employment Situation release for 8:30 AM EST, with the unemployment rate expected to have increase to 9.8% in September (from 9.7%) and nonfarm payrolls expected to have dropped by 177,000.
Personal Income increased by 0.2%, $19.3 billion, to $11,973.0 billion seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and was expected to increase by 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in July (originally reported as unchanged). Net of taxes Disposable Personal Income increased by 0.1%, by $15.5 billion, to$10,895.0 billion, and was unchanged in July. As incomes grew, Personal Consumption Expenditures increased by 1.3%, better than the expected 1.0% increase, following a 0.3% increase in July. With the rate of spending faster than the rate of income growth, the Personal Savings Rate dropped to 3% of disposable income in August from 4.0% in July, and is less than half of the 6.2% rate observed in May of this year.
Today at 10:00 AM EST, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to have increased to 53.9 in September after increasing to 52.9 in August from 48.9 in July ending the 18 month streak of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Also at 10:00 AM, the Pending Home Sale Index is expected to have increase by 2% in August following a 3.2% increase in July.
Upcoming Releases
Unemployment Rate (10/02 at 8:30 AM EST)
Nonfarm Payrolls (10/02 at 8:30 AM EST)
Factory Orders (10/02 at 10:00 AM EST)
ISM Services Index (10/05 at 10:00 AM EST)
