Initial Claims increased by 11,000 to 531,000 claims for the week ending 10/17, worse than the expected decrease to 513,000, following a level of 520,000 from the previous week, which has been revised upwards from the originally reported 514,000 filings. The 4-week moving average was 532,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s moving average. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the prior week, ending on 10/10, was 5,923,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the preceding week’s revised level, decreasing the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate down by 0.1% to 4.5%.
The Conference Boards’ Leading Indicators Index increased by 1.0% to 103.5% (2004=100) in September, better than the expected increase by 0.8%, after it had increased by 0.4% in August, revised downward from a reported 0.6% increase. This is the 6th consecutive monthly increase in the index, following a 20 month decrease since the July 2007 peak, with a trend reversal in the current upswing which began in April. The Coincident Indicators was unchanged in September and stands at 99.9 (2004=100), following an increase of 0.1% in August. The Lagging Indicators decreased by 0.3% to 109.6 (2004=100). The leading indicators advancing and the coincident indicators ceasing to decline in the recent month insinuate a bottoming out.
Upcoming Releases
Existing Home Sales (10/23 at 10:00 AM EST)
Case/Shiller Home Price Indices (10/27 at 9:00 AM EST)
Consumer Confidence (10/27 at 10:00 AM EST)
Durable Orders (10/28 at 8:30 AM EST)
New Home Sales (10/28 at 10:00 AM EST)
