Yes, the market got me. It finally blew through 875 on the S&P 500 and merely average volume be damned. Embrace the good news (housing) and ignore the bad (swine flu, banks needing more capital). Let’s go Joe Investor, time to back up the truck.
There comes a point where any analyst worth anything has to admit defeat. I promptly switched from bear to bull on March 10, the day after the lowest close and the home of that humongous rally that kicked off the bull run. But I got spooked March 30 when the market did its one day crack and fought the rally the rest of the way to 875.
Yes, there were a few profitable trades along the way but I was mostly out of stocks for a good chunk of the time of the rally. The missed price advance of the rally was not really that bad compared to the captured price advance.
In my defense, I wrote last week in the newsletter that the longer the market stayed just under resistance the better the odds it was going to break out to the upside. Sure enough, it did. Don;t worry, I am not patting myself on the back.
So here we are with yet another new rally high on yet another day of rather ho-hum volume. Why does it still feel like a head fake? Why does it matter that the Nasdaq just ran into its 200-day average? Or that the trannies were up 6.8% on a day when oil was quite strong? Or that homebuilders soared (see today’s Barron’s Online column)? Or that commodities related stocks are firmly in the lead? Or that the ultra poison 3x short financials ETF was down 27% and the banks were up 15%?
You know, sometimes I just don’t get it. Now is one of those times. I can’s wait to see what I put in tomorrow’s newsletter.