The iconic thinker from the 1960s, Marshall McLuhan, is known for his commentary on media, particularly television (“The medium is the message.”), but he also said something else quite profound, especially when placed in a market context – There are not two sides to a story; there are forty, at least (I paraphrase.).
This is and has been a major focus in this writing space – when it comes to the market, there is always more to the story than what the headline stories suggest. For example, yesterday, oil prices surged on the news that US inventories drew down some 3.5 million barrels in the latest EIA report.
Today, prices have retreated because there is more to the story than the US inventory drawdown, which is easily explained by the drop in US production related to the Saudi war on US oil production and the rise in demand which happens every spring.
- Stronger-than-expected demand growth and a slowdown in U.S. crude supply have boosted oil prices by 50 percent from a six-year low hit in January.
Yet, we still have Saudi Arabia and its OPEC pals producing oil near record levels, Russia selling all it can to stay economically viable, Iran on the brink of a deal that would lift sanctions, electric cars becoming more affordable with longer driving distances, more fuel-efficient cars than ever hitting the roads, and the renewable energy movement picking up a head of steam around the world.
So, these other sides of the story result in other oil news that does not seem to make the headlines.
- Physical markets, however, are showing a weaker underbelly, crude traders said, pointing to tens of millions of West African, Azeri and North Sea barrels struggling to find buyers.
In other words, speculators are driving the price up, but, down in the streets where the oil is actually physically sold, the reality is a bit different – oil is stacking up, even when prices are down. Demand might be picking up, but not enough to relieve the glut appreciably, even if US production is down from its peak …
- Demo Shows Microsoft Is Making Impressive Progress with HoloLens
The headline above led me to an interesting story that suggested two things of importance to market players. First, there could be a new investment/trading line to check out if Microsoft can make the HoloLens work well. Second, if Microsoft can do it, it just might make the company interesting again.
- In just a few months, the Microsoft wearable device that blends virtual reality with the real world seems to have gotten closer to becoming a commercial product.
So, according to MIT, the company is making strides in going after what HP is going after, and that is a shift from the current reliance on archaic computer operating platforms to platforms that utilize the latest and best technology.
- Microsoft hopes that the holographic gadget becomes its next big computing platform, with applications ranging from video games to design, education, and architecture. The company hasn’t yet said precisely when it will release HoloLens, just that it will be available “in the Windows 10 time frame.” But it’s unclear what that means. That operating system is due this summer.
Transformation, the essence of market relevance, is happening everywhere, another topic I have been writing about for some time. Again, nothing is scared; everything we know is subject to the dynamism of today’s technological transformation. New markets are forming.
- In the past month, more than 200 billion videos were viewed online. And these videos include real, full-length TV shows. In fact, 83% of viewers aged 18-29 say they watch “some, most, or all of their shows online.” And it’s not just a youth phenomenon … more Americans are now watching videos online than on TV. 58% now say they no longer need their TV at all.
This was an easy one to see coming – the death of cable TV and the advent of on-demand viewing, yet the swiftness with which it has come is impressive. In this case, it is as Marshall McLuhan said, “invention is the mother of all necessities,” whereas in the case of California, and other drought-stricken parts of the world, the opposite adage is true – necessity is the mother of invention.
- The Western Hemisphere’s biggest desalination plant, a $1 billion project under construction since 2012 in the coastal city of Carlsbad, California, is due to open in November.
Actually, invention is not the right word in this case, as desalination has been around for a while; rather, the phrase “getting it done” works better. Sometimes, corporations and governments need a crisis to get the next big thing in place, and that is the case in California.
- Approval is being sought for a final permit to begin construction of a second plant of similar size in Huntington Beach, south of Los Angeles, next year.
And so it goes, right down to the wire, as one more year of less-than-normal rain and no real snowpack in the west will create a real crisis in one of the world’s largest agricultural regions and one of the world’s largest economies.
- About a dozen much smaller desalting plants have already been built along the coast, state water officials said.
With desalination, it is backward we go to a technology that will get us to the future.
Okay, Mr. McLuhan said what I said more philosophically and with a bit more flair – “We look at the present through a rear-view mirror. We march backwards into the future.”
Our point is the same, and it might be true generally, but it is not the end of the thinking regarding ways to produce potable water in a world where it is precious. Trust me on this – further invention is coming in this realm because there is now a market for commercial production of water. Yes, new markets are forming.
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
