As we all sit on pins and needles awaiting the “decision” from Europe, I am reminded of my wait for the results of my graduate exam. I didn’t like the feeling then, and I don’t like the feeling now. Back then, one professor could wield enough destruction on your exam to fail you, and today, Germany’s parliament could wield enough votes to doom all the work done to contain Europe’s debt crisis. Just saying …
Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years in October as consumers fretted about job and income prospects.
Once again, telephone solicitors are telling us what the American public thinks. Once again, whatever people are telling the pollsters ain’t what’s happening in the real world, or maybe people are lacking confidence, but they consume anyway, which suggests the poll is worthless as an economic indicator. Either way, the pollsters should quit wasting their time and money …
UPS produced another solid quarter of earnings growth against the backdrop of a deceleration in exports from Asia and a challenging global economic environment,
Like the FedEx earnings report, the UPS numbers suggest the global economy is not falling off a cliff. The numbers did speak to what some consider a looming problem across the Pacific. For some time now, doomsayers have been predicting China’s tightening policies to control inflation will cause such a precipitous drop in China’s growth rate (hard landing) that the global economy will falter. I know I must sound like a parrot, but if folks who should know better would just wait for the facts rather than attempting to be the first one out of the gate with a “prediction,” then the market would be less erratic. The facts are that China has turned its inflationary trend to the downside and its program to increase domestic consumption (think fewer exports) is working for both China and exporters of goods to China. So far, it appears the Chinese economic engineers have engineered a soft landing for the world’s number two economy.
China’s vast manufacturing sector expanded moderately in October to snap three months of contraction, reflecting the resilience of robust domestic demand that is likely to soothe fears of an abrupt slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. HSBC’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also showed price pressures eased in China, underlining consumer price data that has shown a slight pullback in inflation from three-year peaks.
One market alert I received this morning pointed to the consumer confidence data as the reason the market tanked first thing today. I’d like to believe the market knows better, and it understands that the economic fundamentals and the confidence data don’t match up, and of the two, the fundamentals are more important. I’d like to believe that. I could then chalk up this morning’s slide to 1) profit taking after such a big rally and 2) some are betting European policy makers will screw it up tomorrow, as the rest of us do nothing while waiting on pins and needles. Makes sense to me. How about you
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
