Sell HG (May)

Sell 30yr Bond (June)

Sell $AUD

Sell EUR

Maybe: Buy SB (May)> 13.64

The 30 yr bond trade is on the radar, like anything else, it’s edging closer to the donchian channel – the 60 day low in this case.Have bonds come down a lot in price? Yes they have. And because bonds went on bull tear beginning about 75 trading days ago, the 60-day low has been rising quickly.Check out the lower channel on this chart:

I don’t have an opinion on whether trades entered against a rising or falling channel have any greater chance of success.At a gut level, it might seem somehow safer if an entry is against a channel that is flat. After all, that low (or high) price is “more established”, it’s been the low for a long time.

A counter hypothesis would be that a long flat channel suggest that the market in question is in a trading range, and not trending.

A test of such hypotheses is left as an exercise for the reader.