The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bullish again when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,459.32) fell 1.87 points or 0.13% on Tuesday.

RSI(14) for the SPX fell again but still remains in the overbought zone that has marked previous stock market highs. Now at 70, RSI(14) is nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

NYSE volume fell 3% to a level 11% below its 200-day SMA. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

Investor sentiment data indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rise above their 2012 market highs. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Over the past 3 months, those who gambled on Fed and ECB threats to print money have won. But that does not mean that stock prices will continue to rise now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction. A downside correction seems due. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/18/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1396.32, 50-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1350.89, 200-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP ‘s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11, but that 50-200 spread is narrowing. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 9/1712. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 6 weeks. Support 34.97, 34.34, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 8/3/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in weeks ahead. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 172.23, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 9/18/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing and a crossover seems possible in weeks ahead. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing over the past 3 weeks, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. JJC rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this strengthening from bearish to neutral may be suggesting less pessimism about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.84% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.82% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
2.45% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.43% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.28% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.14% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.93% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.98% , SVU , SUPERVALU
7.07% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.73% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
2.30% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.67% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.29% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.30% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
3.18% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.66% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.49% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.60% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.18% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.44% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.15% , PWER , POWER ONE
0.94% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.90% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
1.17% , GOOG , Google
0.98% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.97% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.07% , CVS , CVS
0.82% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.32% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.62% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.16% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.39% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.19% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.29% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-9.73% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-6.06% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.06% , FDX , FEDEX
-1.08% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.32% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.47% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.36% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-2.46% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-2.51% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.76% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.72% , NBR , NABORS
-1.40% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.98% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.43% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.59% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.46% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.45% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.74% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.72% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.24% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.41% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.38% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.86% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.44% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.70% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-2.16% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.80% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.61% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.39% , TJX , TJX
-0.87% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.49% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.41% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.