ECODATA

Germany Dec Trade surplus decreases to €16.7B from €17B.
Germany CPI – January, Actual: -0.3%, Prior: +0.6% (prel was -0.1% and seasonal adjustment changes were 0.3%, so the final would have been flat if they hadn’t changed the data. January was odd as they also had some sort of freaky discount that made the prel data negative in the first place.)
UK Dec Total Trade deficit rises to £3.3B from £2.9B, unexpectedly jumps to highest level since Jan 09.
PM Rudd defends Australia from debt default barb.
Greece eyes increasing average pension age to 63.

International Review

    * Tokyo Nikkei 225 (-18.92 / -0.19%)
    * Hong Kong Hang Seng (+239.39 / +1.22%)
    * Australia S&P/ASX 200 (-16.30 / -0.36%)

(6:00 AM)

    * UK FTSE 100 (+23.84 / +0.47%)
    * France CAC 40 (+3.68 / +0.10%)
    * Germany DAX (+14.96 / +0.27%)

FOREX

USD/JPY testing range top at 89.55; look for further losses to 88.25/00 – Commerzbank.
EUR/USD breaks past 1.3720, hits 1.3745 resistance (1.3480 the key level).
GBP/USD rangebound around 1.5600.
AUD/USD advances steadily to 0.8740 from 0.8620.

(6:00 AM)

    * Dollar / Yen (+0.45 to 89.72)
    * Euro / Dollar (+0.0079 to 1.3728)

Looking Ahead…

Tuesday, February 9

Earnings: AKR 0.26 ACPW -0.03 ACM 0.39 AGCO 0.3 AGU 0.25 AHCI 0.07 ANR 0.45 AFG 0.98 ASEI 0.96 AHL 1.12 ATRO 0.09 ATAC 0.5 BIDU 1.68 BIIB 1.05 BJS 0.04 BWY 0.11 CAM 0.53 CPST -0.05 CFN 0.38 CSCD -0.08 CE 0.47 CNC 0.52 CERN 0.71 CHD 0.8 CTSH 0.46 CGEN N/A EXBD 0.24 CXW 0.34 CVH 0.56 CYNO -0.11 DIOD 0.29 DEI 0.3 DSCM -0.02 EDGR -0.03 ENER -0.43 EOG 0.97 IT 0.26 GET 0.09 GIL 0.22 IACI 0.18 IESC 0.09 IFF 0.62 ITUB 0.33 KFRC 0.08 VLCCF 0.46 KUB N/A KVHI 0.06 LCAV -0.48 LTRE 0.13 LGF -0.24 MLM 0.33 MXGL 0.99 MEDW 0.08 TAP 1.1 MGAM -0.08 NFP 0.52 UEPS 0.5 NTGR 0.22 NYX 0.48 PMFG 0.02 PCH 0.04 PHM -0.28 QUIK N/A RNR 2.5 DFZ 0.65 RMG N/A RTIX 0.04 RBCN -0.05 SGEN -0.23 TCO 0.69 TIN 0.04 KO 0.67 GTS 0.75 UBS N/A UDR 0.28 ULTI 0.1 USNA 0.59 VLNC -0.04 VSH 0.12 VMC 0 DIS 0.39 WMG -0.13 XL 0.7 ZBRA 0.26
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Wholesale Inventories for December.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM JOLTS Survey for December.
Economic Indicator: Germany CPI.

Wednesday, February 10

Earnings: ABD 0.22 ATVI 0.43 AMKR 0.09 ATR 0.47 MT 0.23 ARRS 0.27 ASUR N/A BHP N/A BIOC 0.06 BMR 0.31 **BKEP.PK** -0.07 BSX 0.13 BHS N/A CAE N/A CCE 0.21 CSC 1.23 SCOR 0.04 CPA 1.09 CLB 1.2 OFC 0.11 DF 0.38 PROJ 0.13 XRAY 0.48 DISCA 0.36 DFT N/A EGP 0.75 ELON -0.17 EDMC 0.39 ELN -0.08 ELOY 0.03 EQIX 0.34 RE 3.38 FORR 0.28 GLUU 0.01 GSIC 0.51 HIW 0.59 HNI 0.24 NSIT 0.2 ICE 1.14 KONA -0.16 ID -0.01 LVLT -0.1 LIOX -0.01 LFT 0.44 LOOP 0.06 LPX -0.19 MGIC N/A MMC 0.37 MAS N/A NRCI 0.29 NETC 0.17 OSUR -0.09 PRE 2.81 PVA -0.09 PVG 0.28 PAA 0.7 PL 1.02 PRU 1.11 SNY N/A SNI 0.51 SWIR 0.18 SIAL 0.72 SON 0.5 S -0.19 SPRT -0.1 TLEO 0.17 ALL 1.01 NYT 0.38 TMK 1.44 TRH 1.83 TDG 0.71 VALE 0.33 WXS 0.54 WYN 0.37
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications; 10:30AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Trade Balance for December.
Economic Indicator: 2:00PM Treasury Budget for January.
Economic Indicator: Ind’l prod for UK, France, and Italy; Japan Composite Indexes.
Commodities: OPEC Monthly report.

Thursday, February 11

Earnings: ASF 0.15 A 0.32 AKNS -0.09 ALU 0.08 ACL 1.51 AB 0.53 AWH 2.21 ACAP 0.83 AN 0.27 BEC 1.27 BWA 0.22 BWLD 0.51 CEPH 1.58 CHG 0.9 CMG 0.79 CBB 0.11 CGNX 0.02 CSTR 0.32 MOC 0.04 CML 0.09 DVA 1.06 DCT 0.11 DFG 0.88 DYP 0.37 EIHI 0.23 ECA 0.42 EPIC 0.14 EXPE 0.28 EZCH 0.09 FFG 0.62 FLIR 0.38 LNUX -0.02 BGC 0.24 GPI 0.44 HGR 0.35 HE 0.2 HEP 0.73 HOS 0.33 IPCC 1 IRC 0.24 IPAS -0.01 JASO 0.11 JRN 0.12 LH 1.15 LUFK 0.16 MAC 0.91 CLI 0.76 MFC 0.57 MAR 0.25 MXWL -0.02 MFE 0.64 MRGE 0.03 TUNE -0.03 MOH -0.16 NRP 0.26 NVE 0.08 PNRA 0.96 PTI 0.38 PTEN -0.08 PNSN 0.14 PEP 0.91 PM 0.78 PGN 0.5 PLD 0.21 PRO 0.07 RNWK -0.06 O 0.46 RSG 0.33 ROVI 0.45 SCG 0.63 SNN 0.92 SNWL 0.1 SONO 0.22 STO 0.53 STRA 2.3 SLF 0.59 SMMX 0.08 ELOS -0.11 SVR 0.36 TKLC 0.23 TSP 0.65 TDC 0.37 CAKE 0.24 THS 0.66 USTR 0.93 VFC 1.46 VIA 0.87 WWE 0.18
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Retail Sales for January.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Business Inventories for December.
Economic Indicator: Aussie Unemployment; ECB Mthly report.

Friday, February 12

Earnings: ALE 0.53 DUK 0.25 E 1.06 HCP 0.5 IR 0.54 UPL 0.47
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index.
Economic Indicator: 9:45AM NFIB Small-Business Optimism for January.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for February.
Economic Indicator: Eurozone GDP; EuroZone Ind’l Prod; UK Composite Indexes.

Monday, February 15

Earnings: CHE 0.94 CW 0.74
Note: US Holiday: Presidents’ Day.

All Times Eastern

Economics

(2/8)

Conference Board’s Employment Leading Index Improves; Growth Rate Low was March.
Fed’s Bullard sees support within Fed on beginning to sell some assets in H2 2010.
Japan Money Supply slows as many leading indicators have since Sept/Oct.

Some More Perspectives On This Weekend’s Secretive Banker Meeting In Sydney.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-more-perspectives-weekends-secretive-banker-meeting-syndey

The Aussie/Euro Cross is the Carry Trade in its Purest Form.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aussieeuro-cross-carry-trade-its-purest-form

Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):

Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 2/4.
Short-term: Neutral 2/4.

Interest rates seem to be holding up better than stocks keeping away a more favorable setup. Possibly this is the favorable seasonality for interest rates or possibly it’s due to the Fed having held down interest rates previously. Oil prices like silver are nearing an extreme. Neutral favors whatever the current market direction is as both interest rates and oil showing relative weakness to stocks becomes a positive setup for an advance. January 2010 saw the various growth rates of oil and interest rates showing strength relative to stocks which is a short-term negative and long-term adjustment to slower market appreciation at the very least and something we’ll probably have to contend with on and off until the next economic growth slowdown or recession.

Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):

Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.

Commodity sectors’ short-term growth rates show intermediate growth rates are among the weakest with only telecom similar. The best time to look for a short-term reversal is when both commodity sectors become the weakest. A positive is that we haven’t had a negative signal yet for long-term growth rates due to energy even though basic materials became the strongest sector in September. That could be a negative on the downside as it will take a while to get both the commodity sectors to the weakest.