* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, European stock markets were supported and the Euro currency rallied following a successful Spanish bond auction that produced yields that were the lowest in almost a year. European traders are awaiting today’s monthly European Central Bank meeting. The ECB is not expected to make any major moves on interest rates, but the market place does want to hear ECB chief Draghi’s press conference. The Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting today, as expected. There was more positive economic news coming out of China overnight. China’s trade surplus rose sharply in December, with exports rising more than expected. Asian stocks were boosted on that news. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, wholesale trade data, and foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today, on more chart consolidation as prices hover near a 2.5-month high. Bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,462.50 and then at the September high of 1,467.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,450.00 and then at 1,439.30. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,736.00 and then at the January high of 2,747.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,720.75 and then at Wednesdsay’s low of 2,711.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover near a three-month high. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 13,300 and then at this week’s low of 13,235. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the January high of 13,370 and then at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 145 12/32 and then at this week’s high of 145 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 144 25/32 and then at this week’s low of 144 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 132.04.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.26.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 131.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Greenback bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.80 and then at last week’s high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 80.45 and then at this week’s low of 80.22. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh three-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $94.70 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$94.00 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Markets were mixed overnight. Traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report, but the more important data of the week comes with Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand, quarterly grain stocks and annual grain summary reports, due out in late morning. That particular batch of USDA data will important for grain price direction in coming weeks. The near-term technical postures of the grain markets remain bearish at present.
