The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/14/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 6/14/10 and so turned bearish again.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 2-week lows on 6/14/10 for a short-term sell signal
The VIX Fear Index closed at 28.58 on 6/14/10, ending below 30 for the first time in a month. A falling VIX suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. The VXN Fear Index fell to 28.94 on 6/14/10, its lowest level in month.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX) surrendered early gains on 6/14/20 to finish the day with a small loss. SPX scored its largest weekly percentage gain in 3 months over the past week. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to have begun.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.11% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
20.28% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
5.73% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
2.47% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
4.43% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
0.86% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
6.13% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
3.98% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.43% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.65% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.78% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.94% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
4.42% , JCP , JC PENNEY
3.49% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
3.04% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.10% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
1.32% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
2.38% , A , AGILENT TECH
1.01% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
3.62% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
1.95% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
0.67% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.40% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.11% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.93% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.84% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.43% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.73% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
2.18% , MAS , MASCO
1.95% , SUN , SUNOCO
1.70% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.62% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
4.77% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.03% , SLE , SARA LEE
1.50% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
3.09% , IP , INTL PAPER
2.00% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
1.82% , APA , APACHE
2.73% , UIS , UNISYS
0.81% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.85% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.40% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.60% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-4.42% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.58% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-0.18% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-0.97% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.18% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.61% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.07% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-2.28% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-2.07% , DE , DEERE & CO
-2.33% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.27% , PWER , POWER ONE
-1.30% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.88% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.90% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.31% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-2.00% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-5.07% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-1.55% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.73% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.98% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-2.54% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-0.83% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
-2.58% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-2.10% , USB , US BANCORP
-4.69% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-1.23% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.61% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-1.81% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.41% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.35% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.37% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.49% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.59% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.99% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.58% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.89% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.44% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 5/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY has remained above its 200-day SMA consistently since 2/23/09. Support 30.34. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) remains neutral, according to the 50/200 trend-following moving average system. Absolute price of XLI rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10. Support 27.40. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK held above its May low and remains neutral. Support 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP is slightly below its 200-day SMA and remains neutral. Support 25.78 and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) moved above 4-month highs on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU remains bearish, with price below SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.02, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV stabilized since breaking down below 6-month lows on 5/25/10. Still, price is bearish because price is below SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) and the absolute price of XLF both remain neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 6/14/10 and so turned bearish again. Absolute price of XLE stabilized since breaking down below 8-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains neutral. Support 50.15 Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell below 9-month lows on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.55. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EEM also is neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains bearish.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio remains bullish, confirmed by rising 50- and 200-day SMAs. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/8/10, turning neutral. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above its 200 SMA on 6/11/10 and remains neutral.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD tested and held above its February low and remains neutral.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 3-month highs on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF held above its May low and remains neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/14/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWM closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of MDY closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell back into its 3-week trading range on 6/11/10, thereby cancelling a short-term uptrend signal. Support 69.51, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 76.30, 77.74, 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above its all-time high at 1249.7 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains technically bearish, with the Ratio below both SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA.
Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Copper nearest futures price has bounced since breaking down to a new 7-month low of 2.72 on 6/7/10 but remains in a downtrend, probably reflecting recent uncertainties about the global economic prospects. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.72. Resistance 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating gains since setting a 14-month high at 126.05 on 5/2510, which reflected a flight to safety. Support 121.06, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.05, 126.15, and 130.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been moving with the stock market and remains neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 2-week lows on 6/14/10 for a short-term sell signal. Support 86.29, 85.325, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.5% Bulls versus 31.9% Bears as of 6/9/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.21, down from 1.40 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index closed at 28.58 on 6/14/10, ending below 30 for the first time in a month. A falling VIX suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to 28.94 on 6/14/10, its lowest level in month. A falling VXN suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) surrendered early gains on 6/14/20 to finish with a small loss. SPX scored its largest weekly percentage gain in 3 months over the past week. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to have begun.. Support 1040.78, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1109.17, 1130.29, 1151.41, 1173.57, 1181.49, 1219.80, 1220.03, and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1181.49, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2010 range
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1151.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1130.29, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
1109.17, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2010 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.86% Italy Index, EWI
1.82% South Korea Index, EWY
1.39% France Index, EWQ
1.38% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.24% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.19% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.17% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.10% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.02% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.01% European VIPERs, VGK
0.98% Austria Index, EWO
0.98% India PS, PIN
0.93% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.88% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.81% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.80% Germany Index, EWG
0.73% Australia Index, EWA
0.71% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.70% Belgium Index, EWK
0.69% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.68% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.68% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.66% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.64% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.64% Japan Index, EWJ
0.63% EAFE Index, EFA
0.63% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.61% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.61% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.60% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.59% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.58% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.58% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.57% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.56% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.54% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.54% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.48% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.48% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.46% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.46% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.44% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.44% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.43% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.41% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.39% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.39% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.38% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.31% Water Resources, PHO
0.31% Singapore Index, EWS
0.29% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.28% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.28% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.28% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.28% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.27% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.26% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.25% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.25% Sweden Index, EWD
0.24% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.24% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.22% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.22% Dividend International, PID
0.20% South Africa Index, EZA
0.20% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.18% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.18% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.17% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.11% Global 100, IOO
0.09% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.03% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.02% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.01% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% Russia MV, RSX
0.00% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.00% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.02% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.10% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.11% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.11% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.13% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.13% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.17% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.18% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.22% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.25% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.26% Networking, IGN
-0.30% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.30% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.30% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.34% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.35% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.35% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.37% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.40% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.40% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.41% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.46% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.49% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.51% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.51% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.52% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.59% Energy Global, IXC
-0.60% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.65% Spain Index, EWP
-0.83% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.97% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.98% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.04% Financial Services DJ, IYG
