NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio remains bullish, confirmed by rising 50- and 200-day SMAs. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.

The NASDAQ Composite absolute price rose above its 200 SMA on 6/11/10.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX) scored its largest weekly percentage gain in 3 months over the past week. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to be underway.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/10 and is bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 6/11/10 and remains bearish.

Health Care (XLV) absolute price recovered somewhat since breaking down below 6-month lows on 5/25/10. Still, XLV price is bearish because price is below SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA.

Crude Oil price fell back into its 3-week trading range on 6/11/10, thereby cancelling a short-term uptrend signal.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.08% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.50% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.08% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.53% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
2.79% , NOVL , NOVELL
1.30% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.84% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
7.29% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
5.03% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
3.90% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
3.59% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
5.56% , IP , INTL PAPER
3.75% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.57% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.50% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.96% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
3.95% , MOT , MOTOROLA
1.21% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
1.60% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
1.05% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
4.26% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.12% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.43% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
4.02% , GCI , GANNETT
2.33% , BA , BOEING
2.19% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
3.44% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
7.02% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.84% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.97% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
3.02% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
3.69% , PFE , PFIZER
2.51% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.35% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.95% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
1.90% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.68% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.85% , GLW , CORNING
0.53% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.42% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.99% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-0.17% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.31% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.17% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.68% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.25% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.91% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.45% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.36% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.53% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.11% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.12% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-1.61% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.74% , CMA , COMERICA
-0.54% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.80% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.33% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.42% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
-0.23% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.49% , RTH , Retail H, RTH
-0.57% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.84% , RAI , RJR TOBACCO HLDS
-0.62% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.80% , AET , AETNA
-0.25% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-0.18% , XTO , XTO ENERGY INC
-0.21% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.28% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-2.00% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.20% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.46% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.29% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.45% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.09% , NBR , NABORS
-0.12% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.11% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.10% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.32% , GPS , GAP
-0.07% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.14% , WPI , WATSON PHARM

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 5/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY remains above its 200-day SMA and May low and remains neutral. Support 30.34. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) remains neutral, according to the 50/200 trend-following moving average system. Absolute price of XLI rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10. Support 27.40. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP fell below its 200-day SMA on 6/11/10 and remains neutral. Support 25.78 and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK held above its May low and remains neutral. Support 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) moved above 4-month highs on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU remains bearish, with price below SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.02, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF also remains neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV recovered somewhat since breaking down below 6-month lows on 5/25/10. Still, price is bearish because price is below SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of XLE fell below its 8-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains neutral. Support 50.15 Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell below 9-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.55. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EEM also is neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains bearish.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio remains bullish, confirmed by rising 50- and 200-day SMAs. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/8/10, turning neutral. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above its 200 SMA on 6/11/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD tested and held above its February low and remains neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 3-month highs on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF held above its May low and remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 6/11/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell further below its 50-day SMA on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWM closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of MDY closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell back into its 3-week trading range on 6/11/10, thereby cancelling a short-term uptrend signal. Support 69.51, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 76.30, 77.74, 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above its all-time high at 1249.7 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) whipsawed below its 50-day SMA on 6/11/10 and technically bearish again.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price broke down to another new 7-month low on 6/7/10. Copper’s downtrend reflects recent uncertainties about the global economic prospects. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.9005 and 2.811. Resistance 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating gains since setting a 14-month high at 126.05 on 5/2510, which reflected a flight to safety. Support 121.06, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.05, 126.15, and 130.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been moving with the stock market and remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke out to another new high on 6/7/10. USD main trend remains bullish. Support 85.325, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.71 and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.5% Bulls versus 31.9% Bears as of 6/9/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.21, down from 1.40 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index recently has been stuck in the 30s after rising to a 14-month high of 48.20 on 5/21/10. This might suggest some kind of divergence compared to price indexes, which are nearer their extreme lows of the year. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index recently has been stuck in the 30s after rising to a 14-month high of 48.89 on 5/21/10. This might suggest some kind of divergence compared to price indexes, which are nearer their extreme lows of the year. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) scored its largest weekly percentage gain in 3 months over the past week. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to be underway. Support 1040.78, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1109.17, 1130.29, 1151.41, 1173.57, 1181.49, 1219.80, 1220.03, and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1181.49, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2010 range
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1151.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1130.29, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
1109.17, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2010 range

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.75% Spain Index, EWP
1.85% Networking, IGN
1.80% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.79% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.67% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.54% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.54% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.52% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.50% Italy Index, EWI
1.46% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.43% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.43% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.40% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.36% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.35% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.35% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.31% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.31% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.30% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.25% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.23% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.18% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.15% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.12% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.12% Austria Index, EWO
1.11% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.08% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.08% Mexico Index, EWW
1.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.04% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.98% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.97% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.97% France Index, EWQ
0.96% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.95% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.92% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.88% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.88% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.88% Water Resources, PHO
0.87% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.87% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.86% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.85% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.85% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.84% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.84% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.83% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.82% Energy Global, IXC
0.80% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.80% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.74% South Korea Index, EWY
0.72% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.70% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.69% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.68% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.68% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.68% Dividend International, PID
0.67% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.67% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.66% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.64% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.64% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.63% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.61% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.61% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.61% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.58% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.57% China 25 iS, FXI
0.56% Global 100, IOO
0.54% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.54% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.54% Australia Index, EWA
0.54% Singapore Index, EWS
0.53% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.53% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.52% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.52% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.49% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.47% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.46% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.42% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.39% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.39% Energy DJ, IYE
0.38% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.38% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.37% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.36% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.36% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.34% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.28% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.26% Belgium Index, EWK
0.24% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.21% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.15% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.14% EAFE Index, EFA
0.14% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.10% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.09% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.08% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.07% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.06% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Russia MV, RSX
0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.00% Canada Index, EWC
-0.03% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.06% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.07% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.09% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.09% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.11% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.15% Germany Index, EWG
-0.17% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.20% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.21% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.25% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.54% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.82% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.88% India PS, PIN
-0.93% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.55% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO