This morning, the long-expected nonfarm payroll numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics were released, and the headline numbers were mixed, albeit more or less in line with expectations. We lost 95,000 jobs in the month of September, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%.
The 95,000 number is larger than was generally expected; the expiring federal Census jobs totaled 77,000 in the month (70,000 was expected by IHS Global Insight) and private employment rose by 64,000, indicating that the economy continues to grow…but at a glacial pace.
August’s job losses were revised down marginally, from 54,000 to 57,000 for the month. But again, Census and other government job losses overshadowed the good news of private sector growth.
We shed 159,000 government jobs overall in September. The good news from this — if there is any to be found — is that only 6,000 or so temporary Census workers remain on the payrolls currently, which increases the odds that October’s employment headline number will reach positive territory. Whether it will be enough to put a dent in the 9.6% unemployment rate is another question entirely.
This is now officially the longest period of unemployment reaching 9.5% or higher — 14 months — since 1948, when monthly records were begun. While the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, those who speculated an “L-shaped” economy, like Zacks Chief Market Strategist Dirk van Dijk, CFA, have been proven correct thus far.
Too bad. We could have used some good news today.
Zacks Investment Research
